The Week in Review
Saturday, October 25, 2014
America's dairy sector falls back to earth
Its large domestic market stayed buoyant in the face of crashing world prices, but will not do so for much longer. A major exporter, yet domestically oriented and self-contained, America's avoided most of the past year's global dairy market deflation.
Sunday, October 19, 2014
Palm to create an oilseed feed bonanza?
Helped along by export tax cuts, palm oil is undercutting soy oil, bruising the latter's exporter crushing margins and threatening to bring protein meal prices down another notch. Having already fallen below US$3.30/bushel, corn entered the deflationary downtrend first and is approaching its market bottom.
Saturday, October 11, 2014
Advantage, Norway: Top salmon exporters go in different directions
One country's salmon aquaculture embarks on a new round of faster growth while the other sees output taper off. It has been a good year for both Norwegian and Chilean salmon farmers, though the latter had some luck fall their way. Russia's banning of European food products has turned the latter into its salmon supplier of choice.
Saturday, October 4, 2014
An autumn of abundance
Amid mounting crop surpluses and a down trending global liquidity cycle, corn and soy fundamentals have not looked this deflationary since last decade's financial crisis. In our August feed crop articles, we predicted that the USDA's inevitable boosting of record yields would tank corn and soy futures as the harvested crops started to come in.
Saturday, September 27, 2014
Chasing greener pastures: Frustrating days for American beef cattle
Cattle markets, pastureland weather and industry restructuring trends are working at cross purposes to one other. This is undermining what should be a year of record profits and moving the industry northwards. American beef cattle farmers are a frustrated lot these days. Cattle prices have repeatedly eclipsed their pre-2014 records, sometimes by as much 30%.
Saturday, September 20, 2014
A new era of low cost feed inputs?
For the first time in years, we are seeing low feed costs and high meat prices. Are there any looming threats to livestock farming's new found profitability? After ten years pockmarked by hyperinflation, a succession of new price records and unprecedented market volatility, the world market for feed inputs has entered a new era of more lower, stable prices and reduced volatility.
Saturday, September 13, 2014
Pegging the size of a record US corn harvest
Late summer USDA reports low-ball crop yield estimates to prevent volatile market shifts. We examine how this year's real yield and harvest numbers will impact prices. Although the USDA boosted its estimated corn crop yield to a record high 167.5 bushels/acre it surprised everyone with its new-found conservatism.
Saturday, September 6, 2014
Indian poultry's soy input problem
One of the world's most promising meat lines is being held back by protectionist domestic soy farming policies. After increasing production at an impressive 10% annual rate, from a million tonnes in 2000 to over 3.7 million tonnes this year, India's poultry sector is encountering strong headwinds.
Saturday, August 30, 2014
Idyllic China corn statistics versus market reality
With USDA corn statistics painting a picture of bountiful Chinese supplies and domestic corn prices trading nearly three times above CBOT futures, something has to give.
Saturday, August 23, 2014
A difficult year for China's swine sector
Sagging hog prices, high feed costs, steep losses darken the first half of the year. Beyond late 2014's cyclical upturn, serious challenges loom. In a year of disease decimated hog inventories and record pork prices, China's self-contained swine sector is the odd exception.
Saturday, August 16, 2014
America's perfect feed crop growing year?
Excellent weather, record crop yields imply looming oversupplies of corn and soy. Harvest time will be deflationary but higher costs for land, fertilizer and fuel have jacked up price floors. As this article's title says, barring any unexpected changes in weather, 2014 is turning out to be a perfect year for America's corn and soy crops.
Saturday, August 9, 2014
Brightening prospects for Australian beef cattle
Amid an expected El Nino induced drought that never came, growing Asian and Middle Eastern meat demand and new free trade agreements, Australian beef cattle is entering a secular upswing. It has been a good news-bad news for Australian beef cattle farmers. On one hand, falling feed costs a rainy late 2012 and early 2013 made last year's beef output rise 9.7%.
Saturday, August 2, 2014
America's broiler producers fly high
Output and exports are flat but rising domestic demand, higher prices, low feed costs and falling inventories make US broilers among the most profitable of the world's poultry industries. The red meat sector's misfortunes are proving very fortunate for America's broiler industry. Near record high hog and cattle prices and a PEDv-induced pork shortage are making many consumers substitute poultry in place of red meat.
Sunday, July 27, 2014
China: More imported steak and less foreign corn
Policies that favour expensive corn and cheap pork are changing the type of agribusiness inputs that China chooses to import. Although the demand dynamics of China's vast agribusiness market have grown as expected, the feed-to-meat supply chain components appear to be developing in a different manner than was forecast.
Saturday, July 19, 2014
Good times, bad times and great uncertainty in America's swine sector
Hog rearing, pork processing returns at record highs amid devastated farm inventories and much guesswork over actual output. It has been the best and worst of times for American swine producers.
Saturday, July 12, 2014
The shifting fortunes of Thai agribusiness: Chicken is in, prawns are out
Thai poultry finally recovers from bird flu just as its aquaculture line falls to a disease outbreak and allegations of cruel slavery. There has been a reversal of fortunes within Thailand's agribusiness supply chain.
Saturday, July 5, 2014
Brazilian beef: Mature, rebounding, with an overhanging productivity question
Ground level market signals point towards higher US corn consumption, higher feed demand and a shift in acreage towards soy. Three months of excellent US crop growing weather has taken a toll on feed grain prices, with CBOT corn falling approximately 13%, from US$5.00/bushel in the early second quarter, to bottom out near US$4.35/bushel in mid June.
Saturday, June 28, 2014
An Asia driven Australian dairy revival?
Trade liberalization, improving weather, export-oriented investments promise better days ahead but much market share has been lost to the United States.
Saturday, June 21, 2014
Beans today, palm leaves tomorrow
Chinese demand and unexpectedly smooth Brazilian logistics lifted soy prices while rainy Southeast Asian weather depressed palm oil. Expect these trends to reverse themselves later in the year.
Saturday, June 14, 2014
Brazilian beef: Mature, rebounding, with an overhanging productivity question
Exports are near record levels and poised to overtake India within a few years but boosting cattle productivity is essential for long-term success.
Saturday, June 7, 2014
Dairy markets in a dive
Improving profit margins boost output just as China's import demand tapers off. Forward contracts imply that producers have yet to respond to lower prices.
Saturday, May 31, 2014
Another dubious, contradictory springtime USDA corn market report
America's corn stocks-to-use ratio plummets even as its share of the world corn market increases. A sharp reduction in US acreage is to be counterbalanced by much higher crop yields and world exports are supposed to fall 5%. Can bearish market assumptions really be sustained?
Saturday, May 24, 2014
Brazil's swine sector: The last available export supplier?
Improving trade market access, America's PEDv epidemic and Canada's inability to bridge the supply gap promise better days ahead -if PEDv does not strike.
Saturday, May 17, 2014
Myanmar's agribusiness sector: Shaky statistics, pent up meat demand, problematic feed supplies
Corn cultivation, feed demand and meat consumption have all taken off. Shaky statistics cannot hide the country's growing appetite for chicken and pork, but it is not clear if domestic feed inputs can keep pace.
Saturday, May 10, 2014
Canada's swine sector: Two flat years past, and another to come
Caught between years of underinvestment, unfair US trade laws and PEDv, Canada's pork output and exports are poised to stay flat.
Sunday, May 4, 2014
Vietnam plays the world corn market
An early year drought is counterbalanced by low corn prices and the availability of discounted shipments rejected by China.
Saturday, April 26, 2014
Stalled, but profitable: America's swine sector tops out
Amid a PEDv epidemic, high prices and falling feed costs, returns are high as output and exports top out.
Saturday, April 19, 2014
Deflation, stabilisation and an El Nino wild card: China makes -and breaks - the world dairy market
China's import binge overwhelms explosive supply growth to sustain prices amid falling feed costs. Supply-side increases peter out amid slackening demand and a problematic weather forecast.
Saturday, April 12, 2014
Brazil's broiler exporters get the middle age blues
Competition intensifies, consumption and exports falter as industry consolidation takes off.
Saturday, April 5, 2014
The prismatic, multi-faceted world of feed supplements
Growing twice as quickly as meat demand itself, supplements are an agribusiness innovation locus keynoted by sustainability, innovation and a profound need to transform how we farm livestock.
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