The Week in Review
Saturday, January 9, 2016
A bad year for second tier poultry exporters
• Trade barriers, bird flu, terror attacks devastate Turkish poultry exports • Collapse of Russian and Venezuelan economies leaves Argentine exports with no place to go • A 76,000 tonne, post-2013 Thai export surge is counterweighted by a near 250,000 tonne fall in Turkish and Argentine shipments
Saturday, January 2, 2016
A financial recovery, long-term challenges loom for Thailand's broiler sector
• Saha Farms's production restart overwhelms export growth, deflating prices and returns • A ban on US grandparent stock will constrain supplies, boost 2016 prices and profits • Cruel working conditions cast a dark cloud over reputation of Thai broilers exports
Saturday, December 26, 2015
Dead rats, rising feed costs and a sly waiting game: The TPP's asymmetrical impact on top dairy exporters
How Canada's dairy industry was spared, America played a waiting game and Oceana got shortchanged in recent TPP negotiations.
Saturday, December 19, 2015
A pause in China's dairy sector recovery
High feed costs, low milk prices and odd WMP market behavior extinguishes a three year dairy market boom. A strong recovery is around the corner, but not for imports.
Saturday, December 12, 2015
World fishmeal markets dodge their worst-case scenario
This year's El Nino, though heaty, raised coastal South American temperatures by less than expected. Along with an unexpectedly strong Nordic fishmeal production and slack Chinese demand, this should keep prices in check.
Saturday, December 5, 2015
America's swine sector returns to an even footing
Fully recovered from PEDv, America's swine sector shrugged off Russia's meat boycott, an expensive US dollar and a Q1 price crash to resume its export-oriented growth.
Saturday, November 28, 2015
Good chicken in a bad neighbourhood: The Turkish broiler sector's year from Hell
First the country that buys 50% of its broilers boosts import tariffs, then H5N1 breaks out. Just when everything appears to be under control, terror attacks paralyze shipments. After coming out of nowhere and briefly overtaking China to become the fourth largest world poultry supplier, Turkish chicken meat exports have nosedived.
Saturday, November 21, 2015
New Zealand's dairy sector learns to live off its fat
Dairy powders both fueled an export boom and lead a wrenching two year market crash. Accounting for a minority of output, fatty products like butter and cheese held up well during the downturn. With prices more than 50% below their early 2014 peak and 60% below their all-time records, it has been a difficult two years for New Zealand's dairy sector.
Saturday, November 14, 2015
Canadian pork: Stagnant, but hopeful
Domestic demand is growing for the first in decades, counterbalancing Russian market setbacks. While challenges remain, its production and competitive cycle is turning upwards.
Saturday, November 7, 2015
Good news, bad news for Indian broilers
The market is exceeding growth expectations and could grow even faster even in the future. The question is whether this faster growth will go to domestic producers or imports..
Saturday, October 31, 2015
Australian beef: Kind markets, cruel nature and a dairy driven bump in output
A dairy market downturn is giving Australia's beef trade a temporary boost but to take full advantage of growing Asian demand,it needs a return to rainy conditions.
Saturday, October 24, 2015
Projections vs. Reality: An export-driven crisis for Argentine broilers
2015 exports will total just 52% of the volume forecast a year ago and 36% below 2014's level but its trade fundamentals keep improving.
Saturday, October 17, 2015
World salmon market firms up as output growth tapers off
Norway and Chile find themselves constrained by natural limits, implying that prices must rise and a new driver of export growth must be found. After Russia's recession and boycott induced a record one-week price fall in December 2014, the world salmon industry has recovered to have a mixed, though reasonably good year.
Saturday, October 10, 2015
Dawn of a new world shrimp market: Emerging exporters face intensified competition
The ambitious trade deal reached Monday among 12 Pacific Rim countries was met with mixed reactions in the US, which led the negotiations toward its successful conclusion in marathon sessions in Atlanta, Georgia.
Saturday, October 3, 2015
Fishmeal bottoms out amid cooling Chinese demand, warming ocean waters
A poor Chinese aquaculture season, financial panics and accidents have all worked to deflate fishmeal but deteriorating supply-side fundamentals willoutrace any resulting fall in demand. Despite all attempts at finding alternative inputs rich in the same amino acids and fatty acids, world aquaculture still precariously depends on fishmeal.
Saturday, September 26, 2015
Brazilian poultry’s bird flu windfall
Exports jump to boom-time levels as it overtakes China to become the world's second largest poultry producer. With both the American and Chinese broiler sectors hamstrung by bird flu, Brazil has taken advantage of the situation to overtake China as the world's second largest poultry producer.
Saturday, September 19, 2015
Ecuadorian shrimp farming takes off
Taking full advantage of Southeast Asia's EMS epidemic, Ecuador's shrimp exports have doubled in volume and quadrupled by value since 2010.
Saturday, September 12, 2015
An American beef cattle farming renaissance
After forty hard years, US beef cattle are poised to enjoy sustained inventory increases, solid profits and steady, consistent demand growth. This upturn will coincide with a re-inventing of the way are cattle are raised.
Saturday, September 5, 2015
A lost decade for China's broiler sector
Once hailed as the country's most promising livestock line, it is being unseated by Brazil as the world's second largest poultry producer, and looks set to slump further. After several years of successive food safety scandals and bird flu outbreaks that killed dozens of people, China's poultry sector's expansion is being held back by the country's recession.
Saturday, August 29, 2015
More beef, less milk in your future?
Dairy returns are back to their pre-2006 levels as supplies expand and demand growth tapers off. Will farms shift back towards beef cattle ranching? Although the dairy market downturn started a year and a half ago, the downtrend's market shaking gravity only became apparent during the last four months.
Saturday, August 22, 2015
Dairy market apocalypse
Stakeholders ask for trading to be suspended but the worst may be yet to come. The world dairy market is officially in a panic: Early 2015's price rally has given way to a new round of mid-year deflation.
Saturday, August 15, 2015
A maturing market for feed additives and livestock supplements
Although everything from lower feed costs to China's recession is putting the brakes on livestock supplements' expansion, markets as diverse as America and Vietnam promise much growth momentum ahead.
Saturday, August 8, 2015
Pricey soy, cheap Yankee chicken and the dilemma of Indian poultry
India's broiler sector is having a good year, but faces many challenges ahead. India's poultry farms are enjoying a profitable year but wondering for how long the good news can last. After pausing in 2009 and the first part of 2010, the industry enjoyed four consecutive years of strong annual output growth, ranging from 8.0% to 9.5%.
Saturday, August 1, 2015
Asia puts the brakes on the world beef market
Indian supplies, Chinese demand shift world beef export growth into a lower gear. Since 2010, the world beef market's growth has been defined by two emerging players; one of them an emerging supplier, the other, the fastest growing mass market for red meat in the world.
Saturday, July 25, 2015
An end to fishmeal disinflation?
Costly fishmeal finds itself range bound between currency cheapened European supplies and El Nino driven supply uncertainty. Our first quarter fishmeal report correctly anticipated a break in this feed input's upward price trend. Unfortunately, after falling and levelling off for five months, fishmeal's disinflationary pause may have run its course.
Sunday, July 19, 2015
Chinese dairy lines respond to shifting appetites
Decelerating milk output hides booming demand for UHT milk, infant formula amid diverging dairy powder production and import trends.
Saturday, July 11, 2015
'Will there be enough protein meals?'
It has all too often been said that as the world population and the ranks of the new prosperous grow, so does the demand for practically everything, especially food, particularly, as far as the agri sector is concerned, meat, fish and dairy.
Sunday, July 5, 2015
Brazilian beef: All the advantages, but none the luckier
After a decade as the world market's new poster boy, America's dairy exports face heightened competition but retain many advantages. After several banner years when high Chinese dairy demand coincided with southern hemisphere droughts in Australia and New Zealand, the US dairy industry's trade performance is levelling out.
Saturday, June 27, 2015
A nasty year for New Zealand's dairy sector
Prices fall, profits plunge with a new round of industry consolidation ahead. It is not an easy year to be a dairy farmer in the world's leading exporter of all things milk-related, New Zealand. In fact, after enjoying several very fat years, some of them may not make it through 2015.
Saturday, June 20, 2015
Opportunities and challenges for Thai chicken
Exports earnings trail booming volumes, amid slack domestic consumption and hopeful trade negotiations. It has been a mixed year for Thailand's broiler sector. Exports are higher than expected but this is being offset by lower than expected broiler prices, both in Thailand itself and in overseas markets.
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