Saturday, September 7, 2019

China's rebooted poultry sector, version 2.0: Rising chickens, falling pigs and new eating trends

African Swine Fever is re-launching China's once vibrant poultry sector –and radically restructuring the eating habits of a traditionally red meat eating nation.

Saturday, August 31, 2019

African swine fever in China: Tight pork supply and a lingering uncertainty

China's African swine fever outbreak continues into its second year, and the disease's impact - felt across most of the country's administrative regions - could result in a 40% year-on-year loss of its ...

Saturday, August 24, 2019

Official statistics vs reality: The USDA devastates corn prices amid enduring tight fundamentals, supply uncertainty

Strangely high yield and acreage estimates, dwindling liquidity, political crisis and trade wars exaggerate ...

Saturday, August 17, 2019

Bad but could be worse: African Swine Fever spreads into Vietnam

China's southern neighbor is now experiencing ASF deaths and mass swine cullings. Domestic meat lines, feed output are all impacted, as are imports of meat and feed crops.

Saturday, August 10, 2019

World beef's slow growth and rapid transformation

Many leading beef exporters are being held back by politics or bad weather, leaving Latin American nations to increasingly dominate this meat line.

Saturday, August 3, 2019

It's not just African Swine Fever! How ten years of setbacks derailed China's feed and livestock boom

Animal diseases and food safety scandals have devastated one formerly fast-growing Chinese protein line after another -and ...

Saturday, July 27, 2019

"Officially" an Exporter? Flat output, rapid import growth and China's changing role in the world seafood trade

Behind inaccurate official statistics, China's faces production capacity constraints with a rapidly growing appetite.

Saturday, July 20, 2019

America's beef boom peak at a murky trade cross-roads

Cattle herd restocking and export growth level out amid uncertain trade war outcomes.

Saturday, July 13, 2019

A One Man Show: The Western Hemisphere's disparity-ridden, American dominated dairy farming

US technology and scale-driven consolidation single-handedly transformed the Americas into a world-leading dairy exporting region.

Saturday, July 6, 2019

Skeptical incredulity, high price volatility in wake of a bizarre USDA corn planting estimate

Can a stunningly large miscalculation = a good buying opportunity? Expect nervous investors, skittish price movements until market confidence in its "official" information is restored.

Saturday, June 29, 2019

China becomes the world's top shrimp buyer but its output remains a mystery

Whether China produces closer to 400,000 tonnes or a million tonnes of shrimp annually is no longer in question: In less than a decade, a top shrimp exporter has turned into the world' leading importer.

Saturday, June 22, 2019

China revives the world poultry trade - but for how long?

After years of disappointing growth and losing the Russian market, 233,000 tonnes of 2019's 343,000-tonne increase in world chicken imports is due to China's ASF epidemic.

Saturday, June 15, 2019

African Swine Fever Infects The World Pork Market

Exports skyrocket, production nosedives and trade flows change as the world's largest swine market faces a 13 to 19 million tonne pork shortfall.

Saturday, June 8, 2019

The rain and the damage done: Estimating the impact of America's flood-drenched corn fields

Official USDA corn harvest numbers have been washed out by this year's incessant rainfall. We give you an early quantitative assessment of the impact on world corn supplies, demand and prices.

Saturday, June 1, 2019

Bullish corn, a Latin bumper crop and short funds? Behold the state of world corn markets

Even though corn staged an impressive rally, funds are still holding net short positions in the golden grain. They will continue doing so until the market digests a bountiful Latin American crop just coming to market. Short-term corn weakness, soybean firmness. Expect corn to finish 2019 strongly as beans, wheat weaken.

Saturday, May 25, 2019

Is this the final bear market entry? Why corn is better poised to ride out the storm than soybeans

Feed crop oversupply worsens as volatility depends on trade disputes, weather uncertainties and planting intentions.

Saturday, May 18, 2019

Roughly estimating Myanmar's dynamic but murky feed and livestock market

Official statistics are filled with contradictions and exaggerations but this nation's agribusiness sector is growing as quickly as China was in the late 1980s.

Saturday, May 4, 2019

China, global pork supply disrupted by continual swine fever outbreak

African swine fever's impact on China - a major pork producer which accounts for around half of the meat's global output - had dented world supplies and drove up prices.

Saturday, April 27, 2019

Worst case scenario materializes for China's ASF-plagued swine sector

ASF-induced hog mortality may exceed the combined swine inventories of the US, Canada, Brazil, Germany and Spain. Worst estimates are now just average, market signals to grow more pork are being ignored and meat imports are skyrocketing.

Saturday, April 20, 2019

Progress, pitfalls and price inflation in the world salmon market

Despite a three-year output recovery, opening up Chilean frontier areas to production and sustainable new Norwegian methods of controlling parasites, keeping salmon supplies even with demand remains a challenge.

Saturday, April 13, 2019

Argentina's China-revived beef trade looks to The East

Chinese consumers ate 12% of Argentina's 2018 beef output and a free-market government made cattle farming profitable for the first time in decades. Trade agreements with high-quality beef buyers are the next step.

Monday, March 18, 2019

Painting a new picture of China's beef import binge

New estimates of smuggled 'unofficial' imports make China the undisputed world beef market king. African Swine Fever accelerates a hot trend as its market weight alters prices and trade flows.

Saturday, February 16, 2019

Riding the crest of a wave: US beef enjoys one more solid year

A five-year upturn in cattle inventories is over but output and exports will rise for at least another year. Provided wet pastureland conditions return, productivity is high and there will be no shortage of domestic and foreign customers.

Saturday, February 9, 2019

Soybeans: Murky statistical uncertainty, a bullish flash in the pan and underlying bear market realities

Despite the lack of uncertainty created by missing USDA statistics, neither politics nor southern hemisphere weather has dented beans' chronic global oversupply.

Saturday, February 2, 2019

The constantly reinvented bird: Genetics, antibiotics and a century of non-stop poultry innovation

Even after a century of torrid growth, costs keep falling keeps rising, consumption keeps rising and the end-product continues to evolve.

Saturday, January 26, 2019

Emerging New Zealand dairy export trends and a deep, enduring China connection

Stagnant dairy powder shipments amid booming exports of milk, infant formula and fatty goods –with China deciding which commodity is in fashion.

Saturday, January 19, 2019

Japan opens market to UK beef

UK exporters are set to benefit from a multimillion pound boost as Japan opened its market to imports of UK beef and lamb on January 10.

Monday, January 14, 2019

Booming Ecuadorian shrimp output takes up the slack from faltering India

Top customer China now encourages the importing of Ecuadorian shrimp in a legal, direct manner. Its sustainable business model is on track to ship over 600,000 tonnes by 2020.

Saturday, January 5, 2019

Corn forms a floor, with nowhere to go but up in 2019

Both by trend analysis and on the basis of supply demand balances, corn is due to turn up. Monetary conditions can delay the day but not even revised Chinese corn statistics can stop it from happening.

Saturday, December 29, 2018

World poultry recovery and re-invention: The Americas give way to tier 2 exporters

North and South American shipments fall a collective 358,000 tonnes over five years. Thailand, Poland, Turkey, Ukraine account for 71% of the 2014-19 increase in world exports.