November 19, 2012


UK Q1 2012-13 rapeseed exports show 80% on-year increase


In the first quarter of 2012-13 (July-September) season, UK shows an 80% on-year increase in rapeseed exports as it shipped 350,000 tonnes of rapeseed mostly to Holland, Germany and Belgium.


The number is all the more impressive when you consider that full season 2011-12 UK rapeseed exports were the highest on record.


EU grains closed with November 12 London wheat unchanged at GBP217.00 (US$345) per tonne, with benchmark May 13 GBP0.55 (US$0.86) per tonne higher at GBP219.00 (US$349) per tonne. January 13 Paris wheat ended EUR1.00 (US$1.28) per tonne down at EUR269.25 (U$344) per tonne. It was a relatively quiet session with little movement.


Weekly export data out of the principal French grain port of Rouen showed only 34,000 tonnes of soft wheat being shipped out in the week through to November 14 - the lowest weekly total since August according to Bloomberg. Whilst Algeria was the largest home, it is noteworthy that the UK also featured on the list of destinations taking 4,700 tonnes.


Algeria was however reported to have bought at least 200,000 tonnes and possibly as much as 400,000 tonnes of wheat in a tender Friday (Nov 16). The trade expects that to ultimately prove to be of French origin.


News that Brussels had granted 695,000 tonnes of soft wheat export licences this past week - the largest weekly total in more than two years - may indicate that European exports are about to take off.


In an on, off saga that puts Easterners to shame Ukraine are now said to be considering a wheat export ban from December. They should have hit their self-imposed ceiling of 5.5 million tonnes by then after grain exports in the first four and a half months of the 2012-13 season have hit record levels.


Egypt's GASC have apparently said that they have received notification from Ukraine's Agriculture Ministry that they will stop wheat exports from December 1.


Egypt has retaliated by saying that they will remove Ukraine from their list of approved wheat suppliers. To further muddy the waters, in what could be one of the shortest contracts in history, Jordan were said to have bought 50,000 tonnes of Ukraine wheat for January shipment.


Ukraine should however still remain active sellers of corn for much if not all of the current season, although domestic corn prices are said to have jumped in recent weeks.


Russia's grain exports have also been running at unsustainable levels given a clean weight harvest of only 71 million tonnes, which is 23 million tonnes down on last year, this year and are expected to now begin to tail off sharply.


That should thrust Europe and France in particular, to the forefront as chief wheat supplier for North Africa and the Middle East in first of 2013, although India keep letting the odd 100,000 tonnes or so at a time of their wheat surplus trickle out.


Strategie Grains cut their estimate for the EU 2012 soft wheat harvest from 123.0 million tonnes to 122.7 million tonnes - a drop of six million tonnes, or 4.7%, on last year. They upped their forecast for EU corn production this year however from 52.8 million tonnes to 53.6 million tonnes, although that is still well down on an output of 63.4 million tonnes a year ago.


In addition they increased their forecast for corn imports from outside the EU from 10.9 million tonnes to 11.5 million tonnes. They also pegged 2012-13 global wheat ending stocks at 159.0 million tonnes, well below the USDA's current 174.2 million tonnes estimate.

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