October 16, 2006

ASA weekly: Surge in US soy crop; consistent barge rates; Brazil's measures to control soy-rust

 

 

The USDA estimates total oilseed production for US at 96.4 million tonnes.

 

US oilseed have been projected to be 16.3 million tonnes, for stocks ending 2006-07, up 2.2 million tonnes from revised 2005-06 ending stocks.

 

Soy production would register a commendable growth at 86.8 million tonnes, with both yields and harvested area turning out to be higher than previously thought. Soy supplies for the current year also increased, which could boost exports and crush expectations. Soy ending stocks are projected at 15.1 million tonnes.

 

Global oilseed production for 2006-07 has been projected at 390.4 million tonnes, up 2.1 million tonnes from 2005-06, a result of higher rapeseed, sunflower seed, and cottonseed production. Global oilseed stocks for 2006-07 could also be higher than expected as higher production and increased beginning stocks are only partly offset by increased use.

 

Meanwhile, the ASA considers the USDA's announcement on 2005-crop counter-cyclical payments an example of why soy growers need income assurance. The ASA wants Congress to rectify inequities under the current farm bill. Target prices for oilseed crops in the bill are comparatively low. "Soybean farmers have never received a counter-cyclical payment under the 2002 Farm Bill, and this situation needs to be fixed when the 2007 Farm Bill is written," says ASA President Richard Ostlie. "An equitable target price for soy relative to other crop programmes will ensure that soy farmers are not disadvantaged," he adds.

 

ASA has already communicated its concern to the House and Senate Agriculture committees. On September 20, the ASA's first vice president, John Hoffman clarified before the House Agriculture Committee that oilseed producers had supported marketing loans as an effective tool for ensuring that US crops were competitive with foreign oilseed exports. Producers' incomes were also supported when world prices dropped.

 

Biodiesel consumption of soyoil rises

 

According to the Census Bureau, refined soy oil consumption in methyl esters (biodiesel) production during August recorded 81,200 tonnes, well above July's usage of 64,000 tonnes, which had been revised up by 16,300 tonnes.

 

The biodiesel consumption of refined soyoil this month also exceeded June's consumption of 76,700 tonnes that had been revised up by 12,700 tonnes.

 

May consumption also was revised up by 1,360 tonnes to 66,200 tonnes, as was April's, by 4,540 tonnes to 48,500 tonnes.

 

The quantity of crude soybean oil used to produce biodiesel appears to have expanded to about 9,070 tonnes during August from the 2,270 tonnes to 4,540 tonnes consumed monthly so far this year.  This was indicated by the increase in soyoil consumed in other inedible products.

 

Reduced soy planting expected in Brazil, soy rust check

 

Soy planting in Brazil for the current year may show a decline in response to three consecutive years of losses owing to weather and unfavorable currency movements. Soy planted area is expected to reach between 20.5 million and 21.2 million hectares. This would be a reduction of between 7.6 percent and 5.1 percent according to Conab.

 

Soy output may still reach between 53.5 million tonnes and 55 million tonnes.

 

To fight the increasing menace of soy rust, particularly in the centre-west region of Brazil, the government has formulated a policy to ban planting irrigated soy during winters, separate wild soy plants and an early sowing of the main crop. The ban was introduced in the June 15 to Sept. 15 inter-harvest periods in a bid to break the cycle of the wind-borne fungal disease which thrives in wet and warm weather.

 

U.S. & South America Soybean/Products Balance
	United States			Argentina			Brazil
	Actual	Estimate	Proj.	Actual	Estimate	Proj.	Actual	Estimate	Proj.
	2004/05	2005/06	2006/07	2004/05	2005/06	2006/07	2004/05	2005/06	2006/07
Soybeans	thousand tonnes
Carryin	3,059	6,960	12,214	2,434	514	379	3,400	1,440	640
Production	85,013	83,368	86,779	39,000	40,500	41,300	53,000	55,000	56,000
Imports	152	109	109	708	900	950	353	86	100
Crush	46,160	47,320	48,308	29,560	32,600	33,700	29,730	28,000	27,300
Exports	30,011	25,800	31,162	10,548	7,400	7,000	22,798	25,550	26,700
Other	5,093	5,103	4,520	1,520	1,535	1,536	2,785	2,336	2,024
Usage	81,264	78,223	83,990	41,628	41,535	42,236	55,313	55,886	56,024
Carryout	6,960	12,214	15,112	514	379	393	1,440	640	716
Soymeal	thousand tonnes
Carryin	191	156	272	1,350	1,187	2,165	870	640	856
Production	36,936	37,342	38,360	23,347	26,101	26,548	22,928	21,874	21,435
Domestic use	30,446	30,255	30,935	537	573	602	9,162	9,556	9,511
Net Exports	6,525	6,971	7,425	22,973	24,550	25,800	13,996	12,102	12,220
Usage	36,971	37,226	38,360	23,510	25,123	26,402	23,158	21,658	21,731
Carryout	156	272	272	1,187	2,165	2,311	640	856	560
Soybean oil	thousand tonnes
Carryin	488	771	1,374	660	542	712	293	248	450
Production	8,781	9,228	9,099	5,404	6,228	6,397	5,708	5,352	5,233
Domestic use	7,910	8,119	8,709	408	433	563	3,059	3,168	3,205
Net exports	588	506	542	5,114	5,625	5,950	2,694	1,982	2,180
Usage	8,498	8,625	9,251	5,522	6,058	6,513	5,753	5,150	5,385
Carryout	771	1,374	1,222	542	712	596	248	450	298

 

USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 05 October 2006
Country	Commodity	New Sales	Accum. Exports		Country	Commodity	New Sales	Accum. Exports
Belgium	Soybeans	60.00	0.00		Mexico	Soymeal	288.10	10.80
Canada	Soybeans	2.70	8.10		Morocco	Soymeal	5.00	0.00
China	Soybeans	500.80	573.60		New Zealand	Soymeal	1.00	0.00
Colombia	Soybeans	5.20	27.40		Nicaragua	Soymeal	8.40	0.00
Costa Rica	Soybeans	0.60	33.00		Panama	Soymeal	19.50	0.00
Denmark	Soybeans	1.30	23.50		Philippines	Soymeal	83.90	2.10
Indonesia	Soybeans	67.20	71.70		Salvador	Soymeal	36.90	6.90
Israel	Soybeans	46.80	57.10		Surinam	Soymeal	1.30	0.00
Japan	Soybeans	85.70	199.40		Taiwan	Soymeal	3.90	0.40
Korea, Rep.	Soybeans	120.00	46.80		Tunisia	Soymeal	12.00	0.00
Malaysia	Soybeans	24.40	24.50		Turkey	Soymeal	15.00	0.00
Mexico	Soybeans	93.90	397.10		Australia	Soyoil	0.60	0.00
Netherlands	Soybeans	198.40	198.40		Canada	Soyoil	2.50	0.80
Singapore	Soybeans	0.30	0.30		China	Soyoil	20.00	0.00
Spain	Soybeans	58.00	0.00		Guatemala	Soyoil	4.90	0.00
Taiwan	Soybeans	44.60	180.80		Jamaica	Soyoil	2.20	0.00
Belize	Soymeal	0.40	0.00		Korea, Rep.	Soyoil	10.00	0.00
Canada	Soymeal	597.60	24.10		Mexico	Soyoil	49.10	0.60
Colombia	Soymeal	40.00	0.00		Nicaragua	Soyoil	3.40	2.40
Cuba	Soymeal	10.00	0.00		Peru	Soyoil	0.20	0.00
Dom. Rep.	Soymeal	42.50	0.00		Salvador	Soyoil	4.20	2.00
Egypt	Soymeal	23.00	0.00		Saudi Arabia	Soyoil	0.40	0.00
France	Soymeal	30.00	0.00		Trinidad	Soyoil	1.10	0.00
Guatemala	Soymeal	91.10	16.50
Hong Kong	Soymeal	2.60	0.00
Indonesia	Soymeal	17.60	0.00		Export Sales Totals (tmt)
Israel	Soymeal	23.50	0.00		Commodity	Outstanding Sales	Accum. Exports	New Sales
Japan	Soymeal	58.20	0.60		Soybeans	8,954.10	2,161.10	1,086.20
Korea, Rep.	Soymeal	114.00	0.00		Soymeal	1,667.10	61.80	1,728.90
Malaysia	Soymeal	3.70	0.40		Soyoil	92.90	6.00	98.90