March 11, 2013

 

UK winter wheat plantings drop below 1.4 million hectares

 

 

For the first time in more than 30 years, UK winter wheat sowing fell even more than had been thought at below 1.4 million hectares brought about by the wettest year on record.

 

The first official data on national plantings, from the HGCA crop bureau, estimated sowings in England, which account for the vast majority of UK seedings, at 1.39 million hectares, a drop of 25% on-year.

 

The figure, the lowest since the 1.34 million hectares planted for the 1979 harvest, is accurate as of December 1, meaning it could yet be swollen by late seedings. However, consultancy Adas last week said that farmers had managed to do "little fieldwork" over the winter been done, at least until the middle of February.

 

Commentators that Agrimoney.com has spoken to, had talked of winter wheat plantings falling 20%, or potentially a little less.

 

The data "reflect an extremely difficult autumn planting season," the HGCA said, also revealing a 19% drop in barley sowings in England and Wales to 279,000 hectares as of December 1, a figure which would be the lowest since at least the 1970s.

 

And the bureau added that even the crops that had been sown were "likely to be poorly established" because of the excessive damp". "This may make crops less resilient against any extreme weather into spring and summer," senior analyst Jack Watts said.

 

As a further threat to growers, these harbingers of a weak harvest come at a time when many countries are forecasting bumper crops, with Australia's Abares bureau, the International Grains Council and the UN also foreseeing a rebound in the world harvest.

 

"It is important to remember that despite the condition of UK crops, UK grain and oilseed markets operate in a global market. It is critical to monitor the global situation, which will be the main price driver, with the UK situation affecting the relationship between domestic prices and those on the world market." Watts said.

 

He singled out in particular the need for rapeseed farmers to take an international view of pricing potential. While rapeseed farmers face elevated levels of crop abandonment, albeit on sowings down only 1% on-year, "whether this has an effect on prices remains to be seen", the HGCA said.

 

Agrimoney.com cautioned in January over the threat to UK farm profitability from a year promising both depressed crop production and lower prices.

 

The extent of the ground left unplanted is expected to foster a rush to sow spring barley, traditionally the crop favoured in springs following difficult autumn sowings. UK sowings of spring barley are widely expected to top 800,000 hectares, rising by at least 30%.

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