February 13, 2009

Brazilian agricultural consultancy AgraFNP Thursday (February 12) cut its Brazilian 2008-09 soy crop estimate to 57.7 million tonnes.

AgraFNP reduced its estimate from 57.85 million tonnes in January due to losses of 1.2 million tonnes in Parana, the No.2 soy producing state, after a long-spell of dry weather between November and January.

AgraFNP said that higher productivity in Mato Grosso, the No.1 soy producing state, and Rio Grande do Sul state, the No.2 producer, should help to offset the losses.

Yields in Mato Grosso are expected to be 51 60-kilogram bags of soy, better-than-expected, Pedro Collussi, a grains analyst at AgraFNP told Dow Jones Newswires.

Rio Grande do Sul should see yields of 38 bags per hectare, helped by recent rains that allowed the beans to recover after a prolonged drought in the south of Brazil.

Rio Grande do Sul hasn't started to harvest yet, while the harvests in Mato Grosso and Parana are already underway.

AgraFNP's estimate is in line with the National Commodities Supply Corp., or Conab, that has pegged Brazil's soy crop at 57.2 million tonnes.

AgraFNP estimates that soy exports should reach 25.5 million tonnes from the 2008-09 crop, which is 500,000 tonnes above its January estimate.

Brazilian soy producers see a change to export more beans this year due to the smaller soy crop in Argentina.

Brazil is the world's s No.2 soy producer after the US.