December 30, 2003

World Grain Stocks To Fall By End of 2003-04

Reviewing the world's grain market situation and outlook, the International Grains Council (IGC) members noted the market's increasing volatility since mid-2003, largely due to demand uncertainties. Poor grain crops in Europe and the CIS (Commonwealth of the Independent States) had more than offset high production levels elsewhere, particularly in North America and Australia.

World stocks would fall again by the end of 2003-04, much of the decline being in China where possibility of wheat imports and much-smaller maize exports in the remainder of 2003-04 were important market factors, IGC has said.

Countries in Europe and the CIS (countries of the former Soviet Union, excluding Russia) were taking special measures to restrain exports and facilitate imports to maintain domestic supplies of food and feed grains.

Demand from some traditional wheat-importing countries (example, North Africa, Iran, Brazil) was unusually small because of their bumper crops.

The declining value of the dollar and reduced competition from other sources of supply were seen improving US export prospects, especially for maize (corn) coinciding with strong domestic demand for animal feed and ethanol.

IGC's first tentative projection of wheat production in 2004 is 589 mt, 37 mt more than the previous year, assuming a recovery in major producers, including the EU and India, and continued large harvests in North America. Crops in China, Ukraine and Russia are likely to remain lower than usual because of limited sowings.

World wheat stocks would probably fall again, but carryovers in the five major exporters might increase. World wheat trade in 2004-'05 is projected to be slightly more than in 2003-04 (96 mt) but below the average of previous five years.

Larger imports by Pacific-Asia, including China, and North Africa, are expected to more than offset reduced requirements by Europe and Ukraine.