December 28, 2021

FAO: 2021's global pig production to surpass 2018

Global pig meat production in 2021 is forecast to exceed 2018's level, but trade is expected to stay stable, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

Global pig meat output is forecast at 122 million tonnes this year, up 11.2% from the previous year. Output is primarily concentrated in China, with an anticipated increase of 12 million tonnes, accounting for 94% of global expansion.

After losing millions of pigs due to African swine fever (ASF) from 2018 to 2020, China's high production primarily reflects the sharp increase in hog stocks liquidation by farmers to minimise losses from the decline in domestic prices, while hog inventory rose.

Although ASF remains a threat in many parts of the world, production expansions are forecast for the European Union (+1.7%), Brazil (+5.5%), Vietnam (+5.5%), the Russian Federation (+2.4%) and the United Kingdom (+5.4%).

However, production declines are anticipated in the United States due to tight hog supplies, rising feed costs and labour constraints. Outputs in the Philippines, Myanmar and South Korea may decline below 2020 levels due to the continued impact of ASF.

Total pig meat exports in the world are forecast to reach 12.9 million tonnes in 2021, virtually stable year-on-year. This deceleration mainly results from a likely contraction in imports by 13% in China, as the country aims to balance supply with a decline in national demand. Elsewhere, decreases in purchases are expected in the UK, the EU and Japan, offset by increases in the Philippines, Mexico, the US and Vietnam.

- FAO