December 28, 2020

 

FAO: World pig meat output forecast at 105.3 million tonnes this year

 

 

Global pig meat output is forecast at 105.3 million tonnes in 2020 (-4.0% from 2019), primarily due to ASF-induced production contractions in China, the Philippines and Vietnam, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization reported.

 

Output in the European Union may also decline. After a 21% fall in production in 2019, China's pig meat production is forecast to contract by 4% in 2020, to 38.9 million tonnes. The relatively smaller contraction reflects a sharper recovery of the country's pig population.

 

Significantly, large investments have been made in recent years to advance the pig genetics base, helping a faster recovery. African swine fever (ASF) is also mainly behind the expected output contractions in the Philippines and Vietnam. Reflecting the reported cases of ASF in some wild boars and export restrictions, especially to Asian markets, the EU's pig meat output is forecast to fall by 0.4% - though moderated by an increase in carcass weight.

 

By contrast, output increases are forecast in the United States, the Russian Federation, Brazil, Canada and Mexico.

 

In the US, a rise in pig inventory is behind the anticipated output expansion of 1.9%, resulting in total production of 12.8 million tonnes. However, the industry is negatively affected by the reduced utilisation of packer capacity and lower labour force participation. In Russia, the output is likely to grow by 6% to 4.2 million tonnes, stimulated by investments in large-scale farms and vibrant global demand.

 

Brazil is benefiting from the continued government support, while in Canada, increased slaughter numbers and carcass weight, along with an increase in global import demand, are driving an output expansion.

 

Total pig meat exports in the world are forecast to reach 11.1 million tonnes in 2020, up 16% year-on-year. China is forecast to account for 47% of global pig meat imports, growing by almost 80% year-on-year, to over five million tonnes. Notable growth in imports is also forecast in Vietnam, reflecting losses due to ASF. By contrast, South Korea and Japan, among others, are likely to purchase less due to reduced restaurant sales and high retail prices.

 

Regarding exports, the US, Brazil, the EU, Canada, Mexico, Russia and Chile are benefiting from this year's surge in Asian demand.

 

Up to October, the US has almost tripled deliveries to China from 303,000 tonnes to 775,000 tonnes.

 

Although sales to some trading partners may fall, Brazil's deliveries to Asia, mainly China and Vietnam, have been rising, sustaining the country's overall exports. Despite the ban imposed on German pig meat from several countries, the EU is expected to conclude the year with an increase in sales of 6%.

 

Ample export availabilities, and government support through the Emergency Support Fund are assisting Canada to raise exports.

 

Mexico sold eight times more pig meat to China in the first nine months of this year compared with the same period last year.

 

In Russia, market access gained in Vietnam at the end of 2019 is helping the country to sustain export expansions. From January to October this year, 31% of pig meat exports went to Vietnam.

 

Chile's export expansion is principally due to the opening of the Chinese market.

 

- FAO