December 28, 2020

Total EU cereal production expected to be stable at 278.1 million tonnes

The total EU agricultural area is projected to reduce slightly, mainly driven by reduced cereals and oilseed acreage (51.0 million ha and 10.7 million ha, respectively), according to the European Union agricultural outlook for 2020-30 report.

The areas for barley and wheat are projected to decrease, while maize areas should compensate for this by meeting the demand for cereal feed. On oilseeds, the rapeseed area is expected to slow its decline and sunflower seed and soybean areas are projected to continue expanding by 2030.

Thanks to increasing yields, total EU cereal production is expected to remain stable at 278.1 million tonnes.

Better crop rotation systems, improved soil management and increased use of decision support tools should prop yields. Domestic use, supported by higher food use, should also stabilise at 260 million tonnes, while total feed use could decrease by 0.8 million tonnes.

In trade, the position of EU exports is due to strengthen due to converging EU and world prices and proximity to importing markets, primarily in the Mediterranean region and sub-Saharan Africa.

Total EU oilseed production is projected to increase slightly, totalling 30.2 million tonne in 2030. Due to the positive yield development, particularly for soybeans, production should increase from the low levels in 2018- 2020. Rapeseed, sunflower and soya bean production could reach, respectively, 16 million tonnes (-2.2% compared with 2020), 10.6 million tonnes (+6.6%) and 3.5 million tonnes (+26.9%) in 2030.

While the EU oilseed trade is expected to slow down in the medium term, soybean imports should stabilise to meet the demand for animal feed while soymeal imports should decline.

- European Commission