December 27, 2022

Brazil's estimated production for 2022/23 grain harvest rises 15%

Brazil's estimated production for its 2022/23 grain harvest is 312.2 million tonnes which represents a 15% (or 40.8 million tonnes) increase from 2021/22.

With the first crop planting concluding in December, attention turns to the development of crops and the effects of weather, which would define productivity. These figures are included in the third grain harvest survey and were released by the National Supply Company (Conab), on December 8.

With the total planting area in Brazil estimated at 77 million hectares, the country's agriculture maintains the growth trend seen in recent years, and is expected to reach a record. This would represent an increase of 3.3% or 2.49 thousand hectares compared to the area of the 2021/22 harvest.

For soybeans, the third estimate for the planting area in the current season points to an increase of 4.6% over the previous harvest, reaching 43.4 million hectares. Sowing is expected to be concluded by the end of December and weather conditions have been favorable to crops.

For corn, Conab forecasts a total production of 125.8 million tonnes in the 2022/23 harvest, with an expected increase of 11.2% compared to the previous harvest. The planting of first-crop corn has advanced in all corn-producing regions.

The market analysis of Brazilian grains shows that for soybeans, there was a reduction in crushing estimates in 2023, from 51.43 million tonnes to 50.68 million tonnes. With this expected reduction in grain processing, the estimates for final stocks of soybeans for the 2022/23 harvest go from 5.28 million tonnes to six million tonnes.

As for corn, for the 2021/22 harvest, export estimates increased to 41.5 million tonnes, considering the high volumes exported in November and the positive expectation for December.

- CONAB (Brazil)