December 27, 2012

In the year through September, China's soy imports are forecast to climb 4.2%, with US exports to the country, only a little changed from the previous year.

Researcher Oil World said that China may purchase 61.7 million tonnes of the oilseed in 2012-13 from 59.2 million tonnes a year earlier.

The country, the world's biggest buyer of the commodity, cancelled 840,000 tonnes of purchases from the US last week, prompting futures of the oilseed traded in Chicago to slide 4.2% in the period.

"China cancels US soy but still strongly depends on US exports until March," Oil World wrote. "It can indeed be argued that China cannot cover its import requirements if the cancelled orders are not at least replaced or even supplemented with additional purchases."

The US may ship 23 million tonnes of soy to China in 2012-13, similar to the 23.1 million tonnes sold the previous year, according to Oil World. China is predicted to import 19.8 million tonnes of soy from the US in the six months through March compared with 16.6 million tonnes in the year-earlier October to March period as late planting delays harvests in South America, Oil World said.

Shipments from Brazil to China in the same period are predicted to fall to 2.2 million tonnes from 6.7 million tonnes, while those from Argentina are seen dropping to 1.7 million tonnes from 4.3 million tonnes, according to the researcher.

In the April-September period, soy exports to China from the US are predicted to drop to 3.2 million tonnes from 6.4 million tonnes, Oil world wrote. Soy sales from Argentina may climb to 8.4 million tonnes from 3.6 million tonnes in the six months through September and Brazil's soy exports to China will rise to 22.6 million tonnes from 19.8 million tonnes, based on Oil World's outlook.

Rainfall in parts of Argentina in the first three weeks of December was three to four times normal, causing additional flooding and damaging winter wheat as well as recently planted summer crops, including corn and soy, Oil World wrote.