December 26, 2024

 

US swine inventory sees slight growth, record productivity in latest report

As of December 1, 2024, the U.S. hog and pig inventory reached 75.845 million head, a 0.5% increase from the previous year but slightly lower than the preceding quarter.

 

The data was released in the Hogs and Pigs report from the US Department of Agriculture's (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).

 

The breeding inventory stood at 6.004 million head, marking a 1% decline from the third quarter and a marginal 0.1% increase from December 2023. Market hog inventory totalled 69.841 million head, a slight decrease from the previous quarter but up 0.5% year-on-year.

 

The September-November 2024 swine crop reached 35.238 million head, representing a 2% rise compared to 2023 and exceeding pre-report expectations by 1.5 percentage points. Lee Schulz, chief economist with Ever.Ag, highlighted that this growth was primarily driven by an increase in litter rates, while the number of sows farrowed remained consistent with year-ago levels.

 

"This quarter's swine crop set a record for September-November at 35.238 million head, surpassing previous records from 2019 and 2020," Schulz said. However, he noted that the December market swine inventory was approximately 1 million head below the record high of 70.846 million head in 2020.

 

Sows farrowed during the September-November period totalled 2.96 million head, a slight decrease from the previous year, representing 49% of the US breeding herd. Swine producers achieved a record average of 11.92 swine weaned per litter over the past three months, reflecting a 2.2% increase from 2023 and surpassing pre-report expectations by 1.6 percentage points.

 

In the weight categories, swine under 50 pounds totalled 21.834 million head, up 1.2% year-on-year and 0.7 percentage points above expectations. The 50-to-119-pound group included 19.426 million head, a 1.4% rise from the previous year and 1.1 percentage points above forecasts.

 

For swine in the 120-to-179 pounds category, the total was 14.824 million head, a 0.6% decline from 2023, aligning with pre-report forecasts. The 180-pound-and-over group totalled 13.757 million head, down 0.5% from the previous year, slightly better than the expected 1% decline.

 

Producers intend to farrow 2.93 million sows between December 2024 and February 2025, followed by 2.95 million sows between March and May 2025.

 

Operations with over 5,000 head but raised by contractees accounted for 50% of the total US swine inventory, a 1% decrease from the previous year. Iowa led all states in swine inventory with 24.6 million head, followed by Minnesota at 9.5 million head and North Carolina with 8.2 million head.

 

To compile the report, NASS surveyed 6,046 operators nationwide during the first half of December. Schulz noted that survey response rates have declined significantly since the late 1990s and early 2000s, dropping from the mid-80% range to 60% or lower.

 

Due to changes following the 2022 Census of Agriculture, several US states were excluded from the December 2024 survey. These states include Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, California, and others, totalling 34 states.

 

-      National Hog Farmer