December 26, 2023

Rabobank's Q1 2024 poultry report forecasts moderately positive year ahead

In its latest poultry report for the first quarter of 2024, Rabobank anticipates moderately positive conditions in the poultry segment, forecasting growth of 1.5% to 2% for the coming year, Supermarket Perimeter reported.

Lower input costs are expected to result in more affordable chicken prices, stimulating consumption in 2024. This outlook signals recovery compared to the 1.1% growth observed in 2023. The primary growth regions are projected to be Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America.

Senior analyst of animal protein at Rabobank, Nan-Dirk Mulder, said producers must balance supply growth with relatively slow demand growth, particularly in the United States, Thailand, Indonesia, China, and the European Union, which are grappling with oversupply issues.

Rabobank highlighted that consumers would remain price-sensitive due to a weak economic context, compelling producers to offer affordable products through price-driven channels.

Feed costs are anticipated to decrease slightly in 2024, but global geopolitical issues and weather events, such as the war in Ukraine and the Middle East conflict, could still impact the market, along with oil and gas prices.

While global trade growth has slowed, Rabobank expects trade to continue expanding, particularly in raw chicken meat. The market is projected to gradually recover, driven by improving consumer spending power in key markets like the EU, UK, and US.

The report also acknowledges the potential impact of avian influenza on the poultry market in 2024. The disease has already affected production and trade in the United States and Europe, with ongoing cases reported in commercial farms in North America and Europe.

-      Supermarket Perimeter