December 23, 2004

 

 

Brazil Center-West Soy Crop Doing Well Despite Little Rain

 

Despite lower-than-usual rainfall across Brazil's center-west, the region¡¯s soybean crop continues to develop well, analysts and traders said.

 

As a result, the top-producing region remains on course to produce 30 to 32 million tons this season, up from 24.6 million tons last year, according to local estimates.

 

"More rain would be ideal, and some regions are suffering, but the crop is in a regular condition," said Mauricio Miguel, agronomist at the Comigo cooperative in south-western Goias state.

 

Regular rains will be crucial over the next few weeks as the crop enters the flowering period, he added.

 

A cold front brought heavy rainfall to Mato Grosso and Goias states Tuesday, after considerable showers over the weekend, according to the local Somar weather service.

 

Mato Grosso had received 90 to 100 millimeters of rainfall in the first 20 days of December, well below the 239 mm to 266 mm that usually falls in the whole of the month, the service said.

 

Further heavy storms are expected to fall on the center-west and the north-east in the Dec. 26-30 period.

 

In Mato Grosso, Brazil's largest soybean producing state, dryness concerns are focused in the west of the state. Elsewhere, weekend rains resolved dry problems.

 

"It has been a strange spring. Normally we get blanket rain in December but this year it has been common to have four or five dry days," said Jacqueline Alves, a trader at the Cuiaba-based Multisafra brokerage.

 

Crops have also been battered by high temperatures and various pest attacks.

 

On the positive side, drier weather should inhibit the spread of the deadly Asian rust fungus.

 

"Rust is the big worry for this year," said Alves.

 

The Asian rust has killed up to 10% of the last crop and has spread across the whole soy belt.

 

In Goias, the late arrival of spring rains frustrated early planting attempts and forced replanting.

 

But as long as rainfall returns to normal in January, there will be no significant problems.

 

"We need those regular rains," said Comigo's Miguel.