December 22, 2025

 

Drop in US commercial pork production expected this year

 

 

Lower year-over-year hog availability in the United States at the start of Q4 has pushed the forecast for total 2025 commercial pork production down 25 million pounds to 27.5 billion pounds.

 

USDA ERS Agricultural economists Mildred Haley and Adriana Valcu-Lisman said pork processors are now finishing December with a year-over-year higher processing spread, after sustaining lower spreads in October through most of November.

 

"For the US pork sector, the fourth quarter of the calendar year typically represents the year's high in terms of availability of slaughter hogs, which consequently pressures both hog and wholesale pork prices to their annual lows," the economists noted. "This year was somewhat unusual, because in October (weeks 41-44 in the figures) slaughter numbers were almost 1% less than year ago numbers because of a smaller spring pig crop and because of disease problems in large hog-producing (US) states."

 

According to the USDA Economic Research Service Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook for December 2025, estimated dressed weights averaged about two pounds, inching estimated federally inspected pork production up to 2.5 billion pounds, almost 1% higher than a year ago. However, it was the lower October slaughter numbers to credit for pressing producer hog prices to an average $69.57 per hundredweight — more than 11% higher than a year ago.

 

"Although processors received, on average, $103.08 per cwt for hog carcasses from wholesalers, 6.2% more than in October 2024, the gross processors' spread for October 2025 averaged almost 10% below than the same period last year," stated Haley and Valcu-Lisman.

 

Estimated FI slaughter in November, at 10.2 million head, was 0.4% lower than the year prior. Just like October, estimated pork production increased less than 1%, due to higher estimated average dressed weights. Prices of both hogs and the pork carcass cutout were year-over-year lower last month, with hog prices averaging US$63.53 per cwt, and the cutout at US$96.02 per cwt.

 

Lower slaughter numbers along with a drop in hog and wholesale pork prices suggest that demand for both pork and hogs declined in November, the economists noted.

 

"The November processors' spread averaged almost US$16 per cwt, almost 12% less than in the same period last year," they said. "It is notable however that in week 48, the last week of November, the decline in hog prices — 2%, year-over-year — fell faster than the value of the pork carcass — 0.6%, resulting in a higher 2025 processing spread for the first time in the quarter."

 

Q4 pork production is expected to reach 7.2 billion pounds, 0.3% less than the same period in 2024.

 

The fourth-quarter price of national live equivalent producer sold hogs has dropped US$2 to US$64 per cwt on weaker-than-anticipated hog demand. For 2025, hog prices are expected to average US$68.58 per cwt, more than 8% above the average price in 2024.

 

Slightly higher pork production in the new year, particularly in the second half, is expected to force hog prices lower on an annual basis. Q1 is forecast for US$64 per cwt, 0.6% higher than same-quarter prices in 2025. Second-quarter hog prices are expected to reach US$70 per cwt, a 0.4% increase. Third-quarter prices are unchanged at US$71 per cwt, 7.9% lower than same-period prices in 2025.

 

Live equivalent producer-sold hogs in 2026 are expected to average US$67 per cwt, 2.7% lower than the 2025 forecast.

 

With the upcoming Hogs and Pigs report in mind, the economists point out that since the week ending Aug. 30 (just before the inventory count for the September report) net slaughter of domestic sows and boars has been year-over-year lower through Nov. 22. Haley and Valcu-Lisman say the December report should clarify breeding inventory numbers and provide insight into whether there has been contraction or expansion since Sept. 1.

 

For 2025 exports, the third-quarter forecast has been reduced to 1.6 billion pounds, a 2.2% dip from the year prior, while the Q4 forecast has risen 10 million pounds to 1.85 billion pounds. Total US pork exports for 2025 are expected to get to 6.97 billion pounds, a 2.1% decrease from 2024.

 

The export volume forecast for 2026 is 7.02 billion pounds, up 1% from the 2025 forecast. Haley and Valcu-Lisman anticipated slightly higher pork production and lower prices in the new year will attract foreign interest in US pork.

 

- National Hog Farmer