December 18, 2023

 

EU's pork production expected to fall due to environmental laws and ASF

 

 

Stricter implementation of environmental laws in some EU countries and declining export opportunities, along with negative public opinion and African swine fever (ASF), are expected to reduce the European Union's pork production, according to the European Commission.

 

An expected decline in the sow herd will likely be offset in part by increased carcass weights. EU pork production is projected to fall by 0.9 % per year between the current period and 2035 (or almost 2 million tonnes compared with 2021-2023). EU per capita consumption is projected to decrease by 0.7 % per year, falling to 29.7kg in 2035, a drop of 7 % compared with the already-low levels recorded in 2021-2023.

 

Production capacity in China, the Philippines and Vietnam is expected to recover sooner than expected, leading to lower import demand, despite the expected continuation of ASF outbreaks.

 

In contrast, there may be increased demand for imports in the United States, Australia, sub-Saharan Africa, some other regions in Asia and neighboring European countries.

 

Over the coming decade, the United Kingdom could become the largest single export destination for EU pork.

 

The combined effect of aforementioned developments means that although EU exports increased in the previous decade, exports are projected to decrease in the coming years and then stabilise at a slightly lower level by 2035 (- 620,000 tonnes between 2021-2023 and 2035).

 

The EU will also need to strengthen and diversify its pork export portfolio in the coming years, the European Commission stated. Pork imports to the EU are expected to remain low and stable, mainly as the UK is focusing on its domestic market, while significant increases in imports from other countries are not likely.

 

After a price spike in 2022-2023, EU pork prices are expected to remain at a higher level following an expected decline in production costs in the short term.

 

However, it is uncertain to which level they will fall back, the Commission said. It is expected that prices could stay higher in the medium term than the levels seen in the past due to increased costs and tighter EU supply.

 

- European Commission