December 16, 2025

 

Slow production growth expected for global animal protein industry

 

 

Entering 2026, the global animal protein industry is set to experience a slowdown in production growth, according to a new report from RaboResearch.

 

The decline is driven by cyclical factors, like shifts in North American and Brazilian cattle markets, as well as by structural factors, such as China's efforts to rebalance its pork market.

 

Poultry and seafood are expected to be the shining stars in the coming year, as they will lead growth, while pork and beef production will contract. RaboResearch said this will mark the first reduction in global terrestrial species output in six years.

 

Challenges like disease outbreaks, trade disruptions, and sustainability pressures continue to plague the industry, calling for strategic adaptation and technological integration.

 

"While we expect feed costs to remain steady, lower protein supplies, rising volatility and trade costs, and disease pressure will weigh on margins," said Éva Gocsik, global strategist animal protein for RaboResearch. "In both mature and developing markets, a focus on increasing efficiency and productivity will be critical at the farm and processor level."

 

With global gross domestic product growth projected to decelerate, Gocsik predicted consumers will become increasingly price-sensitive, altering their consumption behaviors.

 

"Price pressures within animal protein categories may lead consumers to trade down or switch between proteins, while consumers seeking protein-rich foods will potentially boost animal protein demand," she said.

 

Animal protein trade remains resilient despite disruptions. Strategic front-loading, including shipments of Brazilian beef into the United States, have helped sustain volumes amid volatility and shifting tariffs. As geopolitical tensions and policies evolve, new trade agreements may provide a needed boost.

 

Supply and demand imbalances will likely persist into 2026, RaboResearch noted.

 

Animal diseases will continue to impact trade, squeeze margins and pressure productivity. An outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) in Spain shows signs of shifting trade flows as well as continued cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza. Combined with emerging diseases like New World screwworm and Bluetongue, these headwinds are driving greater biosecurity measures and increased focus on managing disease pressures, RaboResearch pointed out.

 

As the industry seeks to mitigate risks, technology adoption is becoming more prevalent.

 

Regulatory momentum is pushing sustainability-related risks in particular to the forefront of strategic planning for animal protein companies. Artificial intelligence offers potential benefits for managing operational risks and advancing sustainability goals. However, RaboResearch noted that investment remains weak.

 

"Maintaining consumer trust is paramount," Gocsik said. "In times of heightened risk, consumers continue to prioritise animal welfare, supply availability, price, food safety and quality, and these demands are driving advancements in transparency and traceability."

 

RaboResearch reported the following regional outlooks:

 

    - North America — Pork production growth will be constrained by disease and limited sow herd expansion. Broiler production will grow due to lower feed costs, while beef production will fall as the cow herd transitions from liquidation to rebuilding;

 

    - Brazil — Beef, pork, and chicken exports are heading toward a new record, with lower feed prices boosting domestic competitiveness;

 

- Southeast Asia — Herd rebuilding will drive pork production growth, but disease remains a challenge. The poultry industry is set for strong growth, supported by export demand;

 

    - Australia and New Zealand — High cattle inventories will maintain elevated Australian beef production, while sheepmeat production recovers. New Zealand beef supply will improve, supported by strong global demand;

 

    - China — Pork production will decline due to herd contraction, while poultry output slows as production growth outpaces demand;

 

    - Europe — Pork production growth will continue at a slower rate, with poultry production rebounding despite avian flu risks. Beef production will stabilise, though supply remains tight.

 

"As the animal protein sector navigates these evolving dynamics, companies must pursue diversification and consolidation while adapting to shifting consumer preferences," Gocsik said.

 

- Meat + Poultry