December 15, 2023

France raises soft wheat export forecast, expresses concerns over 2024 harvest

FranceAgriMer, the farm office, has revised its outlook for French soft wheat exports outside the European Union for the 2023/24 season, citing increased projected sales to China, but concerns linger for the upcoming 2024 harvest due to challenges posed by heavy rainfall limiting sowings, Nasdaq reported.

In its latest supply and demand outlook, FranceAgriMer raised the projection for non-EU soft wheat exports to 10.2 million metric tonnes, a slight increase from the 10.1 million forecasted last month and 0.4% higher than the previous season.

Notably, Chinese buyers have become significant consumers of French soft wheat, with estimates suggesting bookings of 2 to 2.5 million tonnes for shipment between December and March.

The farm office trimmed its forecast for French soft wheat shipments within the EU by a comparable volume to 6.69 million tonnes, down from 6.79 million, though still reflecting a 4.8% increase compared to the 2022/23 volume.

FranceAgriMer also adjusted its estimate for soft wheat use by the starch industry, particularly affected by a fire disrupting operations at a Tereos factory in northern France. This adjustment contributed to an increase in the forecast of French soft wheat stocks at the end of the 2023/24 season, rising to 3.22 million tonnes, a 26% surge from the previous season.

Expressing concerns about the 2024 harvest, Benoit Pietrement, head of FranceAgriMer's grain committee, highlighted potential challenges to sowing estimates for winter grains. The initial estimates from the farm ministry indicated a 5.1% reduction in soft wheat for the 2024 harvest and a 4% decrease in the winter barley area. Pietrement cautioned that the actual impact on winter crops might be more severe, with the need for resowing some fields with spring crops, particularly spring barley.

Turning to corn, FranceAgriMer projected ending stocks for 2023/24 at 2.00 million tonnes, a slight increase from the 1.86 million estimated last month. Additionally, forecast barley stocks for the end of 2023/24 were adjusted to 1.81 million tonnes, up from 1.71 million, driven in part by lower anticipated exports within the EU, notably to Spain.

-      Nasdaq