December 15, 2010

World 2010/11 coarse grain output rises in December

Global coarse grain production is projected to reach 1.09 billion tonnes in 2010/11, up 3.4 million this month.

World corn production is up 2.2 million tonnes to a record 820.7 million. Global barley production increased 600,000 tonnes to 124.3 million. Millet production increased 300,000 tonnes to 32.1 million, and mixed grain is boosted slightly. However, world rye and sorghum production are reduced slightly this month.

Australia has the largest increase in coarse grain production this month, up 2.4 million tonnes to 13.9 million. Favourable rainfall during the growing season in the eastern part of the country offset the drought in Western Australia. However, continued heavy rain during harvest has reduced the quality of small grains. Based on surveys by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), barley harvested area was reduced 100,000 hectares to 4.1 million, but record yields more than compensated, boosting production of 1.9 million tonnes to 9.8 million.

India's coarse grain production increased 1.3 million tonnes this month to 41.6 million. Favourable rains extended beyond the normal monsoon period across most parts of India. Moreover, increased area is reported for corn and millet. Corn production is up one million tonnes this month to 21.0 million, and millet production is boosted 300,000 tonnes to 11.8 million.

EU coarse grain production for 2010/11 is revised up 200,000 tonnes to 139 million. EU corn production increased 400,000 tonnes to 55.2 million, with increased production reported for Romania and Bulgaria. Rye was reported slightly higher in Poland, but there were small reductions in several countries for barley, oats, and sorghum.

Statistics Canada reported survey-based production data that made mostly offsetting changes in different coarse grains. Total coarse grain production increased 100,000 tonnes to 22.1 million. Record corn yield and production is reported, as the growing season in Eastern Canada was quite favourable, increasing corn production 700,000 tonnes this month to 11.7 million. However, barley harvested area is reported lower, cutting production 600,000 tonnes to 7.6 million. Increases in production for mixed grain and rye were small, and the reduction for oats was also small.

Coarse grain production changes for Ukraine were also mostly offsetting, with total production up 0.1 million tons to 21.8 million. Based on harvest reports, corn production is increased 0.5 million tons this month to 12.0 million, as good yields are reported despite searing temperatures during August.

Paraguay's corn production prospects are reduced 0.35 million tons to 1.75 million, as early-season dryness has reduced area and yield prospects.

Global coarse grain beginning stocks for 2010/11 are reduced 0.8 million tonnes this month to 198.2 million, partly offsetting the boost in supplies caused by increased production. Based on a report from a USDA Foreign Agricultural Service post, Serbia's corn feed and residual use estimated for 2008/09 and 2009/10 was increased, reducing beginning stocks 0.6 million tonnes to one million. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported reduced barley production for 2009/10, and exports were estimated higher, combining to reduce 2010/11 beginning stocks 0.5 million tonnes to 1.9 million.