December 14, 2020

US could potentially diversify pork exports in Vietnam, Philippines

New reports from the US National Pork Board demonstrate opportunities that may diversify US pork exports in Vietnam and the Philippines.

The reports also show how African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks in Asia have impacted both countries' pork industries and related supply chains. The market assessments were prepared by Gira, a global research firm, with funding from the Pork Checkoff and the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Emerging Markets Program.

According to Gira's research, as Vietnam and the Philippines recover from COVID-19 and ASF outbreaks, pork consumption and import demand will increase. This projected increase is counter to other key markets, where pork consumption is expected to shrink by 2030. The predicted growth in these two markets is based on the rise in the middle classes and pork's popularity in Vietnamese and Filipino cuisines.

Pork is the most common protein in Vietnamese cuisine. Total pork consumption in the country has more than tripled, from 31 pounds to 72 pounds, since 2000. Additionally, Vietnam's population is rapidly becoming urbanised, as new jobs are drawing rural residents into cities with higher wages, which will increase demand for pork.

In Vietnam, complete recovery to pre-ASF production levels will not be achieved until after 2025, creating an opportunity for imports to help meet demand.

In the Philippines, rising demand for pork is fueled by an expanding population and increasing disposable incomes - significant drivers for the future of pork consumption in the country.

By 2028, a majority of Filipino residents will live in urban areas. This change will help drive growth for imported pork as urban consumers have higher incomes, consume more meat and are exposed to modern retail.

For now, the Filipino pork sector will not fully recover from the ASF outbreak until after 2030, requiring a reliable source of imports to meet domestic demand.

According to the US Meat Export Federation (USMEF), exports accounted for nearly 30% of US pork production from January to September, with over 20% of production exported to just three markets – China, Mexico and Japan.

- National Pork Board