December 13, 2022

USDA increases forecast for Ukraine corn exports

The US Department of Agriculture's (USDA) December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report showed the agency increased its forecast for Ukraine's 2022/23 corn exports by 13% compared to November's estimate, following the Black Sea Grain Initiative renewal, Gro Intelligence reported.

But this would still leave corn exports for the war-torn country, which is normally the world's fourth largest supplier of corn, 34% lower compared to last year.

Despite expecting higher Ukraine corn exports, the USDA reduced the country's corn production forecast by 14% to 27 million tonnes, a 36% year-over-year decrease. The impact of its war with Russia eroded planted area and yield, and record wet conditions in the country's Poltava, Sumy, and Cherkasy regions delayed harvest.

The Black Sea Grain Initiative, which creates a safe corridor for Ukraine's agricultural exports, was extended for an additional 120 days last month.

The USDA also reduced its forecast for US corn exports in its December WASDE report, at 32% behind the historical average so far this marketing year, due to cheaper supplies from South American sources. The agency now forecasts 52.71 million tonnes of US corn exports in 2022/23, a 3.5% decrease from its November forecast.

Low Mississippi River water levels, a critical conduit for US exports, also hampered grain shipments in the fourth quarter.

The USDA also decreased its forecast for the world's ending wheat stocks, excluding China, by 490,000 tonnes to 122.97 million tonnes, as declines in drought-stricken Argentina more than offset projected higher production in Australia. Estimates for the South American nation's wheat exports were downgraded by 25% from last month, which translates to a 54% decrease in comparison to the previous year.

-      Gro Intelligence