December 12, 2003

USDA Forecasts Higher US Wheat Exports, Lower Carryout

The U.S. Department of Agriculture raised its forecast for U.S. wheat exports and lowered expectations for ending stocks Thursday in its December supply and demand report.

The USDA, in the report, said projected U.S. wheat ending stocks "are 25 million bushels lower than last month due to a 25-million-bushel increase in exports. The projection for larger exports is based on stronger-than-expected shipments to date and an increase in the world wheat import forecast."

The export forecast for U.S. wheat is now set at 1.1 billion bushels, up from the November prediction of 1.075 billion bushels, according to the USDA report. U.S. wheat carryout is seen lowered to 583 million bushels, down from 608 million bushels.

Analysts generally expected U.S. wheat exports to get a boost from lower competition from the European Union, and the USDA did indeed lower the E.U. export forecast. The USDA put E.U. wheat exports at 7.5 million metric tons, a drop from the November forecast of 8.5 million tons.

Source: USDA