December 11, 2023


USDA adjusts Brazil soybean projections amid weather challenges


In its December WASDE report, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) revised soybean production forecasts for Brazil due to erratic rainfall and heat stress, Gro Intelligence reported.


The world's largest soybean producer faces challenges, prompting an early adjustment, with the USDA lowering its projection to 161 million tonnes, a 1.2% decrease from the previous month but still surpassing last year's record output.


While Brazil's corn production estimates remain unchanged, concerns arise over the impact of heavy rainfall on the first corn crop in the country's south. The safrinha, Brazil's larger second corn crop, anticipates its own set of challenges during planting in 2024 due to delays in the current soybean crop.


Southern Brazil experiences excess rainfall, while the central region faces dry conditions. Mato Grosso, the leading soybean-growing state, saw precipitation 53% below the 30-year average, leading to severe drought conditions, a pattern not seen in two decades.


Argentina's corn and soybean production forecasts, projected to rise by 62% and 92%, respectively, remain unchanged. Beneficial rains since mid-October contribute to improved soil moisture levels, countering last year's La Niña-induced drought.


Gro's machine-learning Yield Forecast Models for Brazil and Argentina will generate daily forecasts in mid-December. The USDA maintains its estimate for US corn production but reduces corn ending stocks by 1.2%, citing increased exports. US soybean ending stocks remain unchanged.


US wheat ending stocks see a 3.7% reduction due to heightened export demand, although total US wheat exports are projected to be the lowest since 1971. Canadian and Australian wheat production estimates receive slight increases, while Brazil's wheat output faces an almost 11% reduction due to excessive rains in the south.


China, the leading wheat importer, is expected to import 12.5 million tonnes in 2023/24. China's wheat import and soybean import estimates are raised by 4.2% and 2%, respectively, reflecting robust shipments from Brazil and the US.


-      Gro Intelligence

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