December 11, 2006
ASA weekly: New York's ban on trans fatty acids to spur demand for low linolenic soy; China's soy production declines; ADM to increase oilseed crush capacity
A ban on trans fatty acids in food served by New York City restaurants will benefit the ¡¡ãtrans-free¡¡À soyoil business if farmers can grow enough of new low linolenic soy varieties.
The NYC's Board of Health last week voted to make New York the first city in the US to ban artificial trans fats in restaurant food, adding to the national move towards more heart-healthful vegetable oils.
Soybeans with low linolenic acid content yield oil that does not require partial hydrogenation. This year, US farmers raised enough of this soy to produce 300 million pounds of oil, a figure that could triple in 2007.
However, it could take up to eight years to raise enough low-linolenic soy to meet domestic demand for trans-free soyoil.
Incidentally, China's soy output will slip slightly this year reflecting cuts in soy planted area. Imports may increase to support modest consumption growth. According to Ministry of Agriculture statistics, soy imports totalled 21.252 million tonnes in the first three quarters of this year, up 8.8 percent year on year, while exports amounted to 284,000 tonnes, down 13.2 percent year on year.
Archer Daniels Midland plans to increase its oilseed crushing capacity through expansion to meet growing biofuels demand in the US and Canada. Five soy-crushing plants will be expanded in Quincy, Illinois; Frankfort, Indiana; Mexico, Missouri; Fremont, Nebraska and Des Moines, Iowa.
Higher freight indices
The cost of moving goods and commodities by rail and on the inland navigation system increased during October. Rail costs were up 7 percent year over year and up 1 percent from September. Inland towing costs were 15 percent higher than last year and 3 percent higher than September.
Truck costs retreated 1 percent from September. With crude prices firming up it will not be too surprising to see truck costs increase over the coming months.
Johanns, Harkin to discuss Farm Bill
The developing of a new farm bill next year will be one topic of discussion when USDA Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns meets with incoming chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee, Sen. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa) on Dec 12.
Harkin wants to discuss the future of agriculture policy and ¡¡ashaping a bold farm bill¡¡À during the meeting, his spokesman Tom Reynolds told Dow Jones Newswires.
Meanwhile, Harkin commented last week that renewable fuels and land stewardship programmes would play an important role in guiding US farm supports. Harkin believes that biofuel and conservation programmes will help US farmers and ranchers while complying with world trade rules.
Regarding the timing for the new farm bill, Harkin said he saw ¡¡ãno reason why we can't get it done before the deadline¡¡a (the end of 2007).
Rep. Collin Peterson (D-Minn.), incoming House Agriculture Committee chairman, said his panel probably would not begin to draft a bill until April. Peterson said he wanted to give the Budget Committee time to decide how much money will be available for agriculture.
|
U.S. & South America Soybean/Products Balance | |||||||||
|
|
United States |
Argentina |
Brazil | ||||||
|
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. | |
|
2004/05 |
2005/06 |
2006/07 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 |
2006/07 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 |
2006/07 | |
|
Soybeans |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
3,059 |
6,960 |
12,214 |
2,434 |
514 |
379 |
3,400 |
1,440 |
640 |
|
Production |
85,013 |
83,368 |
86,779 |
39,000 |
40,500 |
41,300 |
53,000 |
55,000 |
56,000 |
|
Imports |
152 |
109 |
109 |
708 |
900 |
950 |
353 |
86 |
100 |
|
Crush |
46,160 |
47,320 |
48,308 |
29,560 |
32,600 |
33,700 |
29,730 |
28,000 |
27,300 |
|
Exports |
30,011 |
25,800 |
31,162 |
10,548 |
7,400 |
7,000 |
22,798 |
25,550 |
26,700 |
|
Other |
5,093 |
5,103 |
4,520 |
1,520 |
1,535 |
1,536 |
2,785 |
2,336 |
2,024 |
|
Usage |
81,264 |
78,223 |
83,990 |
41,628 |
41,535 |
42,236 |
55,313 |
55,886 |
56,024 |
|
Carryout |
6,960 |
12,214 |
15,112 |
514 |
379 |
393 |
1,440 |
640 |
716 |
|
Soymeal |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
191 |
156 |
272 |
1,350 |
1,187 |
2,165 |
870 |
640 |
856 |
|
Production |
36,936 |
37,342 |
38,360 |
23,347 |
26,101 |
26,548 |
22,928 |
21,874 |
21,435 |
|
Domestic use |
30,446 |
30,255 |
30,935 |
537 |
573 |
602 |
9,162 |
9,556 |
9,511 |
|
Net Exports |
6,525 |
6,971 |
7,425 |
22,973 |
24,550 |
25,800 |
13,996 |
12,102 |
12,220 |
|
Usage |
36,971 |
37,226 |
38,360 |
23,510 |
25,123 |
26,402 |
23,158 |
21,658 |
21,731 |
|
Carryout |
156 |
272 |
272 |
1,187 |
2,165 |
2,311 |
640 |
856 |
560 |
|
Soybean oil |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
488 |
771 |
1,374 |
660 |
542 |
712 |
293 |
248 |
450 |
|
Production |
8,781 |
9,228 |
9,099 |
5,404 |
6,228 |
6,397 |
5,708 |
5,352 |
5,233 |
|
Domestic use |
7,910 |
8,119 |
8,709 |
408 |
433 |
563 |
3,059 |
3,168 |
3,205 |
|
Net exports |
588 |
506 |
542 |
5,114 |
5,625 |
5,950 |
2,694 |
1,982 |
2,180 |
|
Usage |
8,498 |
8,625 |
9,251 |
5,522 |
6,058 |
6,513 |
5,753 |
5,150 |
5,385 |
|
Carryout |
771 |
1,374 |
1,222 |
542 |
712 |
596 |
248 |
450 |
298 |
|
USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 30 November 2006 | ||||||||
|
|
|
New |
Accum. |
|
|
|
New |
Accum. |
|
Country |
Commodity |
Sales |
Exports |
|
Country |
Commodity |
Sales |
Exports |
|
Canada |
Soybeans |
0.60 |
55.50 |
|
Japan |
Soymeal |
27.60 |
67.60 |
|
China |
Soybeans |
126.80 |
4236.70 |
|
Mexico |
Soymeal |
69.70 |
187.40 |
|
Colombia |
Soybeans |
6.30 |
113.90 |
|
Panama |
Soymeal |
0.40 |
20.30 |
|
Indonesia |
Soybeans |
30.20 |
388.10 |
|
Philippines |
Soymeal |
17.90 |
61.30 |
|
Indonesia |
Soybeans |
30.20 |
388.10 |
|
Salvador |
Soymeal |
0.70 |
7.20 |
|
Italy |
Soybeans |
35.00 |
0.00 |
|
China |
Soyoil |
30.00 |
20.00 |
|
Japan |
Soybeans |
130.00 |
731.90 |
|
Italy |
Soyoil |
3.00 |
0.00 |
|
Korea, Rep. |
Soybeans |
4.90 |
230.20 |
|
Jamaica |
Soyoil |
3.00 |
5.20 |
|
Mexico |
Soybeans |
87.60 |
1044.40 |
|
Mexico |
Soyoil |
0.30 |
21.50 |
|
Netherlands |
Soybeans |
8.50 |
496.90 |
|
Nicaragua |
Soyoil |
1.70 |
3.40 |
|
Peru |
Soybeans |
6.00 |
2.50 |
|
Salvador |
Soyoil |
1.50 |
4.20 |
|
Philippines |
Soybeans |
7.40 |
16.10 |
|
Singapore |
Soyoil |
15.00 |
0.10 |
|
Thailand |
Soybeans |
66.70 |
258.70 |
|
Tunisia |
Soyoil |
12.00 |
0.00 |
|
UAE |
Soybeans |
124.10 |
124.10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Vietnam |
Soybeans |
0.30 |
1.30 |
|
Export Sales Totals (tmt) | |||
|
Canada |
Soymeal |
14.00 |
239.60 |
|
|
Outstanding |
Accum. |
New |
|
Dom. Rep. |
Soymeal |
17.70 |
83.70 |
|
Commodity |
Sales |
Exports |
Sales |
|
Guatemala |
Soymeal |
4.20 |
71.10 |
|
Soybeans |
7,068.10 |
9,842.50 |
666.90 |
|
Hong Kong |
Soymeal |
0.90 |
5.00 |
|
Soymeal |
1,940.30 |
1,073.80 |
116.60 |
|
Indonesia |
Soymeal |
0.20 |
9.60 |
|
Soyoil |
127.30 |
83.90 |
48.50 |
