December 6, 2023
Australia adjusts wheat forecast but still expects smaller harvest
Australia has revised its winter wheat production forecast, projecting an increase of about 100,000 metric tonnes, while highlighting the challenges posed by dry weather that have led to a 37% reduction compared to last year's harvest, Nasdaq reported.
The forecast was published in the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) quarterly crop report, indicating shifts in production expectations for key grains.
Despite the modest increase in the winter wheat forecast to 25.5 million tonnes, the revised estimate remains 37% smaller than the previous year's harvest. Australia, a significant global grain exporter, has faced adverse weather conditions, particularly influenced by the El Nino phenomenon, resulting in some of the driest and hottest conditions on record.
While abundant rain contributed to record harvests in recent years, this year's challenges have impacted yields, contributing to global undersupply concerns. The revised winter wheat production forecast is 4% below the 10-year average, reflecting the ongoing impact of weather-related challenges.
The report noted mixed crop prospects over the spring, with improvements in southern cropping regions expected to offset downgrades in the north. While rain in September contributed to yield improvements, recent storms have damaged the quality of the wheat harvest.
The challenging growing conditions are expected to impact the gross value of Australia's crop production, with ABARES predicting a decrease of AUD 12 billion to AUD 46 billion (US$30 billion) in the 2023–24 cycle.
- Nasdaq