December 5, 2006
ASA weekly: Soyoil supplies abundant; Crush reports increase seasonally; Brazil planting in pace with last year
Since August 2005, soyoil futures have garnered support from heating oil futures on a Btu equivalent basis. That support fell away when energy markets eroded in September. However, soyoil futures held around 24 cents per pound this fall as US soyoil became competitive with South American soyoil, and have since rallied along with soybeans.
Soybean oil stocks near 3 billion pounds certainly do not justify current soyoil prices or the oil share of soybean values that is near 42 percent. However, growing biodiesel demand for soyoil could reduce US soyoil stocks in the next few years.
Soyoil usage in biodiesel production is expected to double to 3 billion pounds in 2006-07, but not even that level could be exceeded given that some 1 billion gallons of capacity is under construction. Though production capacity is expanding, margins for producing biodiesel are getting squeezed by lower energy prices and higher feedstock costs.
According to the Census crush report for October, about 161.66 million bushels of soy were crushed compared with expectations near 161.4 million bushels. Also, the NOPA October crush was 94 percent of NOPA-reported crush capacity.
The seasonal increase in the crush from September is normal. Relatively strong soymeal exports and soybean oil prices have kept crush margins at attractive levels.
Meanwhile, analysts expect Brazil soy to be over 85 percent by Dec 1, which is ahead of average but in line with last season. Mato Grosso and Parana were the farthest advanced, each having 90 percent planted, followed by 85 percent in Mato Grosso do Sul.
Weather and early soy development can be attributed for the same. Incidentally, early planting may help in managing Asian rust besides facilitating winter corn planting, which is planted following the early harvested soybeans.
New ways of testing cellulose from soy stalks
USDA's Agricultural Research Service (ARS) chemical engineer Justin Barone believes pieces of soy stalks would make good fibreboard and other wood-substitute products as well. Barone and ARS geneticist Thomas Devine have found that the cellulose fibers in their sapling-like soybean stalks were unusually strong.
Barone now expects the ARS to design a test to determine the strength or weakness of a plant's cellulose. This would help breeders to select plants with cellulose that could be easily converted to ethanol by existing enzymes.
EU won't appeal WTO ruling on GM moratorium
The EU has decided not to appeal against a WTO ruling that it illegally blocked GM food imports, according to Reuters reports. The case pitted the bloc against the US and other biotech crop producers.
However, the decision will not settle transatlantic differences over how the EU currently allows biotech imports, which the majority of European consumers view with suspicion.
Earlier this year, the WTO found the EU had operated a de facto moratorium on GM products, breaking global trade rules. As Reuters points out, at the time, the EC said the ruling would not alter its policy on biotech foods. But US trade officials said it left the EU with no choice but to start approving applications for GM imports that had been stalled for months, or even years in some cases.
|
U.S. & South America Soybean/Products Balance | |||||||||
|
|
United States |
Argentina |
Brazil | ||||||
|
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. | |
|
2004/05 |
2005/06 |
2006/07 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 |
2006/07 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 |
2006/07 | |
|
Soybeans |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
3,059 |
6,960 |
12,214 |
2,434 |
514 |
379 |
3,400 |
1,440 |
640 |
|
Production |
85,013 |
83,368 |
86,779 |
39,000 |
40,500 |
41,300 |
53,000 |
55,000 |
56,000 |
|
Imports |
152 |
109 |
109 |
708 |
900 |
950 |
353 |
86 |
100 |
|
Crush |
46,160 |
47,320 |
48,308 |
29,560 |
32,600 |
33,700 |
29,730 |
28,000 |
27,300 |
|
Exports |
30,011 |
25,800 |
31,162 |
10,548 |
7,400 |
7,000 |
22,798 |
25,550 |
26,700 |
|
Other |
5,093 |
5,103 |
4,520 |
1,520 |
1,535 |
1,536 |
2,785 |
2,336 |
2,024 |
|
Usage |
81,264 |
78,223 |
83,990 |
41,628 |
41,535 |
42,236 |
55,313 |
55,886 |
56,024 |
|
Carryout |
6,960 |
12,214 |
15,112 |
514 |
379 |
393 |
1,440 |
640 |
716 |
|
Soymeal |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
191 |
156 |
272 |
1,350 |
1,187 |
2,165 |
870 |
640 |
856 |
|
Production |
36,936 |
37,342 |
38,360 |
23,347 |
26,101 |
26,548 |
22,928 |
21,874 |
21,435 |
|
Domestic use |
30,446 |
30,255 |
30,935 |
537 |
573 |
602 |
9,162 |
9,556 |
9,511 |
|
Net Exports |
6,525 |
6,971 |
7,425 |
22,973 |
24,550 |
25,800 |
13,996 |
12,102 |
12,220 |
|
Usage |
36,971 |
37,226 |
38,360 |
23,510 |
25,123 |
26,402 |
23,158 |
21,658 |
21,731 |
|
Carryout |
156 |
272 |
272 |
1,187 |
2,165 |
2,311 |
640 |
856 |
560 |
|
Soybean oil |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
488 |
771 |
1,374 |
660 |
542 |
712 |
293 |
248 |
450 |
|
Production |
8,781 |
9,228 |
9,099 |
5,404 |
6,228 |
6,397 |
5,708 |
5,352 |
5,233 |
|
Domestic use |
7,910 |
8,119 |
8,709 |
408 |
433 |
563 |
3,059 |
3,168 |
3,205 |
|
Net exports |
588 |
506 |
542 |
5,114 |
5,625 |
5,950 |
2,694 |
1,982 |
2,180 |
|
Usage |
8,498 |
8,625 |
9,251 |
5,522 |
6,058 |
6,513 |
5,753 |
5,150 |
5,385 |
|
Carryout |
771 |
1,374 |
1,222 |
542 |
712 |
596 |
248 |
450 |
298 |
|
USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 23 November 2006 | ||||||||
|
New |
Accum. |
|
New |
Accum. | ||||
|
Country |
Commodity |
Sales |
Exports |
|
Country |
Commodity |
Sales |
Exports |
|
Belgium |
Soybeans |
32.10 |
92.40 |
|
Honduras |
Soymeal |
4.70 |
24.60 |
|
Canada |
Soybeans |
11.50 |
52.90 |
|
Jamaica |
Soymeal |
7.00 |
18.40 |
|
China |
Soybeans |
350.90 |
3835.70 |
|
Japan |
Soymeal |
2.10 |
38.20 |
|
Colombia |
Soybeans |
13.30 |
98.40 |
|
Mexico |
Soymeal |
88.70 |
166.10 |
|
Costa Rica |
Soybeans |
15.10 |
68.70 |
|
New Zealand |
Soymeal |
0.50 |
6.00 |
|
Germany |
Soybeans |
53.70 |
393.50 |
|
Nicaragua |
Soymeal |
0.90 |
6.70 |
|
Indonesia |
Soybeans |
60.00 |
362.30 |
|
Philippines |
Soymeal |
14.10 |
30.20 |
|
Japan |
Soybeans |
39.20 |
675.60 |
|
Turkey |
Soymeal |
7.70 |
23.20 |
|
Malaysia |
Soybeans |
24.20 |
48.70 |
|
Barbados |
Soyoil |
0.40 |
0.10 |
|
Mexico |
Soybeans |
43.60 |
979.00 |
|
Canada |
Soyoil |
0.40 |
4.90 |
|
Morocco |
Soybeans |
30.00 |
62.70 |
|
Guatemala |
Soyoil |
3.00 |
7.40 |
|
Netherlands |
Soybeans |
55.40 |
488.40 |
|
Morocco |
Soyoil |
0.40 |
4.90 |
|
Portugal |
Soybeans |
66.90 |
66.90 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Taiwan |
Soybeans |
30.60 |
470.10 |
|
Export Sales Totals (tmt) | |||
|
Turkey |
Soybeans |
47.70 |
255.20 |
|
Outstanding |
Accum. |
New | |
|
Canada |
Soymeal |
17.50 |
213.90 |
|
Commodity |
Sales |
Exports |
Sales |
|
Colombia |
Soymeal |
8.10 |
64.30 |
|
Soybeans |
7,331.30 |
8,912.40 |
729.30 |
|
Dom. Rep. |
Soymeal |
18.80 |
83.70 |
|
Soymeal |
1,958.30 |
939.20 |
214.00 |
|
Guatemala |
Soymeal |
20.10 |
61.90 |
|
Soyoil |
87.00 |
75.70 |
31.40 |
