December 3, 2007

 

US weekly hog slaughter, combined meat output hit new highs
 

 

Preliminary data show US hog slaughter and combined beef, pork and lamb production set new highs this week, easily exceeding the previous records.

 

The US Department of Agriculture estimated the week's hog slaughter at 2.397 million, beating the previous record of 2.372 million head set just two weeks ago. However, a potentially severe winter storm is forecast to move through portions of South Dakota, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin late Friday (November 30, 2007) and Saturday, which could affect weekend slaughtering operations.

 

Freezing rain is expected in Iowa with heavy snow possible to the north. Iowa/southern Minnesota is the largest hog production region in the country and has the most pork processing plants as well.

 

If the storm causes some restrictions in Saturday's operations, the USDA will reflect that in a revision on Monday. The USDA's actual slaughter data for this week will be released on December 13.

 

Packers were able to find nearly 2.4 million hogs for processing this week with little difficulty after the Thanksgiving holiday restricted last week's slaughter. Hog prices moved up by about US$2.50 to US$3.00 per hundredweight on a dressed basis but that is normal for the week after Thanksgiving.

 

Bob Brown, private analyst in Edmond, Okla., said cash hog prices have risen this week from the previous week in each of the last 10 years, so the seasonal pattern remains intact.

 

However, prices into December have softened in some years and risen in others. The most notable December decline was in 1998 when the market crashed to single digits briefly just before the Christmas holiday.

 

Market analysts and livestock dealers hold mixed opinions about hog supplies and prices going forward. Some predict at least two more weeks of near 2.4 million head slaughters before the Christmas and New Year's holidays. If supplies of slaughter-ready hogs remain as large as they have been in recent weeks, marketings will become backed up on the farms and prices could decline to possibly set new lows for the fall and early-winter period.

 

Others look for possible light to moderate tightening of supplies and said colder temperatures and wintry conditions may slow the daily gains enough to ease the burdensome supply situation. If that happens, packers will have to compete more for the hogs and prices might move up.

 

The USDA's combined meat production figure, which doesn't include poultry, for this week is estimated at nearly 1.027 billion pounds. This was about 14.5 million pounds above the previous high set in the week ended Oct. 20, according to USDA data.

 

Until this fall, the weekly combined meat production figure had never reached 1.0 billion pounds. This week was the fourth time it has topped the mark since the beginning of October.

 

CATTLE/HOG SLAUGHTERS
 

US cattle slaughter for the week was estimated at 677,000 head, compared with 580,000 a week ago and 630,000 a year ago. Year-to-date slaughter stands at 31.133 million head, up 1.4 percent from a year ago.

 

This week's hog slaughter was up 11.0 percent from the year-ago figure of 2.159 million. Last week's slaughter was 2.022 million. Year-to-date hog slaughter is estimated at 98.841 million head, up 3.6 percent from a year ago.

 

TOTAL MEAT PRODUCTION

 

Year-to-date combined meat output is 44.206 billion pounds, up 2.2 percent from last year.

 

Broiler/fryer slaughter for the week was estimated at 169.313 million head, compared with 129.511 million a week ago and 164.436 million a year ago.