November 30, 2023


Increase in US Chicago soybean futures as weather inhibits Brazil's yieds




US Chicago soybean futures edged higher on November 29, extending gains from the previous session, as traders assessed the impact of hot and dry weather conditions in Brazil that are reducing yields in the world's top producer.


Wheat futures rose and corn was flat.


The most active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Sv1 was up 0.1% at US$13.47-1/2 a bushel, as of 1145 GMT, after rising 1.3% on November 28. Later contracts were trading mostly lower.


"Brazil is the focal point at the moment," said Ole Houe at agriculture brokerage IKON Commodities in Sydney, Australia. Uncertainty over the crop size would likely cause price volatility in the short term, Houe noted, adding that Brazil's soybean harvest would still be large.


Also supporting soybean prices was a USDA confirmation that US exporters sold 123,300 metric tonnes of beans to unknown destinations for 2023/24 delivery.


In other crops, CBOT corn Cv1 was unchanged at US$4.73-1/2 a bushel and wheat Wv1 rose 0.7% to US$5.76-1/4 a bushel.


For wheat, Agritel said Russian production could reach 90 million tonnes in 2024 after favourable autumn sowing and Russian supply including that drawn from stocks could be above 100 million tonnes for a third consecutive season in 2024/25.


Russia is the world's biggest wheat exporter, and plentiful shipments from the country have held wheat prices near three-year lows in recent months.


However, Russia's Izvestia newspaper reported that the government may impose a ban on grain exports if its stockpiles fall to 10 million tonnes.


Russian export prices for 12.5% protein wheat for FOB delivery in January rose by US$5 last week to US$235 a tonne, helped by a drop in shipments due to stormy weather in ports, the IKAR agriculture consultancy reported.


Ukrainian farmers have almost completed their winter crop sowing, seeding about 5.96 million hectares as of November 28, the country's agriculture ministry said this week.


- Reuters

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