November 30, 2022
India's grains market feels burden of tight supply with war in Ukraine
The last few years have been volatile for the feed value chain due to issues ranging from supply chain disruptions to the impact of climate change on agriculture.
The war in Ukraine only exacerbates the challenges; both Ukraine and Russia produce more than 30% of the world's wheat and barley and 20% of corn.
Prior to the conflict, corn exports from Ukraine for MY 2021-22 (October-September) were estimated at 33.50 million tonnes which are now estimated to be at 26 million tonnes. Their share in global corn exports hovered around 15-16% and then dropped to 13% in 2021-22.
In 2022-23, Ukraine's corn exports are projected to further fall to 7%. The country's acreage under corn to be harvested for MY 2022-23 MY is forecast to drop by one million hectares year-on-year.
Overall, the situation in Eastern Europe is expected to worsen with trade restrictions and sanctions, making access to these agricultural commodities difficult for many countries, including India.
Hence, India had to ban exports of wheat and broken rice to secure domestic supply and prevent a sudden increase in prices. Additionally, wheat will not be available for the Indian feed sector this year.
In the 2022-23 period, India's grain production is likely to decline by 3% due to decreases in rice and corn production. The consumption of grains in the animal feed segment is about 7% of its total output in India. Out of 22 million tonnes of grains, 61% (13.46 million tonnes) is corn, followed by wheat at 24% (5.18 million tonnes). Corn production will be down by 2.14% to 16.35 million tonnes this season.
In MY 2020-21 and most of MY 2021-22, India's FOB corn prices remained competitive with US and South American supplies.
- Dr. Dinesh Bhosale
