November 27, 2006


IGC ups 2006/07 world wheat output by 2 million tonnes on month



The International Grains Council (IGC) Thursday (Nov 23) forecasts 2006/07 world wheat output at 587 million tonnes, an increase of 2 million tonnes from last month's forecast, but still down 31 million tonnes from last year's crop.


Meanwhile the agency again cut its 2006/07 world corn output forecast. IGC now projects global corn production at 688 million tonnes, down 2 million tonnes from its October forecast and 5 million tonnes from the 2005/06 crop.


Thus IGC has kept is total 2006/07 world coarse grain production forecast at 1.557 billion tonnes, which it says is 41 million tonnes below last season's estimated crop.





IGC said it raised its global wheat crop forecast due to better-than-expected yields, especially in Russia.


However, despite the larger world crop IGC kept its 2006/07 world wheat ending stocks estimate at 114 million tonnes, down 21 million tonnes on the year.


Helping to offset the upward adjustment in supplies, the agency raised its world wheat consumption forecast by 1 million tonnes on the month to 607 million tonnes, down from 622 million tonnes from last year.


"Feed use in Russia is up because of increasing pig and poultry numbers, and parched pastures in Australia have forced more cattle into feedlots," IGC said.


IGC now forecasts world wheat trade at 109 million tonnes, down 1 million tonnes from the October figure, but 1 million tonnes above last season's dealings.


Less export demand is expected out of Africa and North East Asia due to higher prices, IGC said. However IGC further raised wheat import forecasts for Brazil and Chile due to smaller domestic crops.





IGC again cut its corn output projections for the US and European Union, which more than offset upward revisions for China and Kenya.


World corn consumption was trimmed this month by 1 million tonnes to 721 million, up from 700 million tonnes last season.


"Tighter supplies and higher prices are restraining feed use in the US, but continued growth in Pacific Asia's poultry and pig industries sustains demand there," IGC said.


IGC now forecasts 2006/07 global corn trade at a record 81.5 million tonnes, up 900,000 from last month and up from last season's 79 million tonnes.


Amid the lower harvest expectations, IGC now forecasts world corn ending stocks at 92 million tonnes, down 2 million from October and down 33 million tonnes on year.


IGC now projects US 2006/07 corn carryover at 23.8 million tonnes, which is less than half last year's estimate of 50.1 million tonnes.