November 21, 2003

 

 

EU's Present Beef Self-Sufficiency Level At Its Lowest Since 1979
 

Beef self-sufficiency in the European Union is at a 26-year low.

 

Latest forecasts available from the European Union Beef Forecasting Group indicate that total beef production during 2003 is expected to decrease by more than 180,000 tons, or more than 2%, on corresponding year-earlier levels, to 7.27 million tons.

 

Consumption, however, is expected to increase by a further 105,000 tons, or 1%, to more than 7.4 million tons.

 

This records EU beef self-sufficiency at its lowest level since 1979.

 

Improvement in the market balance throughout 2003 has resulted in an improved market situation throughout the EU and, particularly, in Holland, Italy, France and Spain.

 

Similarly, in 2004, total EU production is forecast to decrease by a further 70,000 tons, or 1%, to less than 7.2 million head, while consumption should remain relatively stable, at 7.4 million tons.

 

However, this 2004 production forecast excludes the potential increase in United Kingdom production that is likely to occur from the re-entry of Over Thirty Months Scheme (OTMS) beef to the market.

 

If according to speculation OTMS beef returns to the market from April 2004, total UK beef production may increase by a further 18%, which equates to 125,000 tons.

 

Therefore, in reality, if this additional production is included, total EU beef production during 2004 is likely to show an actual increase of up to 50,000 tons, or almost 1%, on 2003 levels, to more than 7.3 million tons.

 

However, in spite of this potential increase, the EU market will remain in a deficit position.

 

In 2003, the biggest declines in production are forecast to occur in Germany, Holland and France.

 

In Germany, total net production during the year is forecast to decrease by almost 10%, to 126,000 tons, on year earlier levels, to 1.19 million tons, as a result of significantly tighter supplies during the first half of the year.

 

Similarly, production in Holland and France, is forecast to decrease by almost 27,000 tons and 14,000 tons, to 357,000 tons and 1.62 million tons respectively, also as a result of a tighter supply situation.

 

However, much of the shortfall between production and consumption is being met by increased volumes of imports and also by Intervention stocks which have been released onto the market throughout the year.

 

To date this year, approximately 155,000 tons of Intervention beef has been sold onto the market. As a result, only 2,300 tons of Intervention beef remain available for sale.