November 19, 2003

USDA Say Beef Supplies Will Continue to Tighten
 

USDA, in their monthly Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook Report, said beef supplies will continue to tighten until U.S. herds expand to increase beef supplies.

"Additional beef and/or slaughter/feeder cattle imports from Canada are not likely to fully offset the deficit," they add. "Any movement toward retaining heifers being weaned this fall for possible breeding next spring and summer would tighten supplies even further."

USDA says while feedlot placements rose sharply this summer, feeder cattle supplies are already down. Feeder cattle supplies outside feedlots on October 1 were 2.5% below a year earlier. This year's calf crop is expected to be 38 million head, the smallest since 1951.

"Until cow slaughter begins to decline and more heifers are retained, the calf crop will continue to decline," says USDA. "The loss of feeder cattle imports from Canada further tightens the supply situation."

USDA says regardless of the outcome of the proposed rule allowing live cattle from Canada into the US, beef supplies will remain very tight over the next couple of years. "Increased domestic supplies are simply not biologically possible until 2006, unless something happens to force increased herd liquidation," they add.

USDA added that improved moisture conditions have helped to reduce the drought areas this fall. Weather conditions through spring and improved grazing conditions in 2004 will be key factors in providing the base for the beginning stages of herd expansion.