November 18, 2004

 

 

Argentina 2004-05 Grain, Farm Products Output Seen at 78.6 Million MT

 

Argentina will produce a record 78.6 million metric tons of grain, oilseed goods and other farm products in 2004-05, the consulting firm Agripac estimated Wednesday.

 

The forecast, which assumes normal climatic conditions for the rest of the season, puts production up 11% from 71 million tons in 2003-04.

 

Agripac said better use of technology and improved farm management techniques are primarily responsible for the increase in output.

 

"As long as the climate is friendly, this will be the main reason for the increase in our production," Agripac director Pablo Adreani said.

 

Soybeans will continue to lead production, accounting for almost half of overall output, according to Agripac.

 

Soybean production in 2004-05 will likely total 38.6 million tons, compared with 34.1 million a year earlier.

 

Wheat is on track to be the second-biggest crop, with an expected output of 16.6 million tons against 14.4 million the previous year.

 

Agripac sees corn output ranking third, with production hitting 15 million tons, rising from 13.7 million tons in 2003-04.

 

Sunseed production probably will total 3.528 million tons in 2004-05 against 3.2 million a year earlier.

 

Meanwhile, Agripac said total area will increase to 28.9 million hectares, up from 27.5 million a year ago.

 

"The increase in area comes from 700,000 hectares of growth in soybeans, which could reach a new record of 15 million hectares ..." Agripac said. "A good part of the increase in soybean area comes from a recovery in planted wheat area, which will (eventually) be used for second-crop soybeans."

 

In addition, better climatic conditions for both winter and summer crops have led to an expansion of area outside the main Pampas production zone, Agripac said.

 

Wheat area is seen up 500,000 hectares to 6.4 million while corn is expected to rise 175,000 hectares to 2.275 million. Finally, sunseed area is forecast to expand 250,000 hectares to 2.25 million.

 

The combined area for corn, soy, sunseed and wheat will total 26 million hectares, or about 90% of planted area for all crops and products.

 

Agripac's estimates are a bit more upbeat than the latest forecasts from the Agriculture Secretariat.

 

The Secretariat had earlier estimate total area for corn, soy, sunseed and wheat at 25.5 million hectares. However, the Secretariat's figure includes area dedicated to growing corn for use as animal feed. This corn is not traded in the commercial market and is not included in Agripac's estimate.

 

The Secretariat forecast 2004-05 wheat production at between 14 million and 15 million tons. It has not forecast production of other crops.