November 18, 2003

 

 

US Combined Meat Production Down From Year Ago; Weekly 5% Decrease

 

U.S. combined meat production, which consists of beef, veal, lamb/mutton, and pork, has been below the year-ago level for eight consecutive weeks, and during that period the weekly reduction has averaged about 46 million pounds, or 5%.

 

Essentially all of the decline in total meat production since September has been in the beef category due to reduced cattle slaughters and lighter carcass weights. The effect of the ban on imports of live cattle from Canada, which was implemented May 20, has been most evident during this period.

 

As of the week ending September 19, the last week in which combined meat output exceeded the year-ago figure, year-to-date production was down just 0.3% from the 2002 level. As of this week, year-to-date production was down approximately 1.1% from a year ago.

 

A number of livestock analysts and other sources look for this trend to continue through the end of this year and most if not all of the first quarter 2004. They foresee cattle slaughter remaining below year-ago levels for some time to come since neither U.S. packers nor feedlots can purchase cattle from Canada.

 

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's weekly reports for livestock imports from Canada, the U.S. has imported about 792,000 fewer slaughter and feeder cattle from its northern neighbor this year as of Nov. 1 compared with the same period in 2002.

 

These 792,000 head would represent about 583 million pounds of beef, based on the latest average carcass weights used by USDA in calculating weekly beef production.

 

THIS WEEK'S ESTIMATED SLAUGHTERS, COMBINED MEAT PRODUCTION

 

U.S. cattle slaughter for the week was estimated at 601,000 head, even with last week and down from the year-ago figure of 655,000 head. Year-to-date cattle slaughter is estimated at 30.991 million head, down 0.35% from a year ago.

 

Hog slaughter for the week was estimated at 2.104 million head, up 3.70% from the year-ago figure of 2.029 million. Year-to-date hog slaughter is estimated at 86.283 million head, down 0.26%.

 

This week's combined meat production - for beef and veal, pork and lamb/mutton - was estimated at 869.2 million pounds, versus last week's 878.3 million and the year-ago figure of 905.9 million pounds.

 

Broiler slaughter this week was estimated at 152.055 million head, compared with 158.112 million a week ago and 154.140 million a year ago.