November 16, 2020

IPVS webinar: Pork industry needs more than best practices to be competitive

Good production practices by themselves are insufficient to keep the pig industry competitive for the next three decades, said Professor Peter Davies of the University of Minnesota at a recent webinar held by the International Pig Veterinary Society (IPVS).

"To remain competitive, the pork industry needs high standards of production at an affordable cost, so that consumers have access in a market that is becoming more diverse," he added. "We cannot predict the future, but we have to provide structure to think about scenarios."

For Davies, demand will increase 14% every decade until 2050. He highlighted that there will be an increase in consumption in developing countries and a drop in rich countries. He foresaw that the main challenge of the production chain is to show itself sustainable for the consumer.

"The economic activity is related to the consumption and not to the production, that's why it is necessary to look at the consumer to change the direction of the industry. If the projected growth is 14% per decade, we see that the consumption is growing less. Developed countries already reached the peak of consumption. In 2018, chicken has surpassed pork as the most consumed meat in the world and this incredibly competitive market (with chicken) should continue like this," said Davies.

He added: "We will have 20,000 years of progress in the 21st century. The industries will be created from socio-environmental sustainability. The biggest challenge will be the consumer's perception of the link between livestock and climate change, which will affect the future of pig farming."

Moreover, new diets would compete with pig industry. "The consumer can choose foods based on plants or alternative proteins, such as insects and algae. We will have a new diet in the next years," Davies highlighted."The millennials generation is 10% less likely to buy meat."

The professor at the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG) and chair of the Scientific Committee of IPVS2020, Roberto Guedes, highlighted the importance to be aware of the production costs, with an upward trend in the coming decades. "In the future, we will have a production with higher costs, which may reduce demand because of the prices," he explained.

Davies concluded by emphasising that commercial policies, events that cannot be predicted, such as the COVID-19 pandemic itself and the disruption of new technologies could change the predicted scenarios.

- IPVS