November 16, 2009

CBH lowers estimated pool return for canola

CBH announced Friday (Nov 13) that 2009-10 harvest pool for canola has dropped A$15 per tonne to a revised estimated pool return (EPR) of A$455 per tonne.

The company attributed the decrease in price to improved weather conditions in the US and Canada which has seen the Northern Hemisphere crop progress strongly, placing pressure on sales in the oilseed market.

Negotiations between China and Canada regarding China's new phytosanitary restrictions on blackleg in canola are creating uncertainty in the market, CBH said.

CBH said prices for the 2009-10 harvest pool for lupins dropped A$5 per tonne to an EPR of A$256 per tonne. Strong production outlook for soy is adding pressure to lupin prices, the company said.

Also, Brazilian soy plantings are nearly 50-percent complete and timely rainfall has boosted crops to be roughly three weeks ahead of typical plantings.

Current estimates are forecasting a large soy crop of 63 million tonnes, as the crop are estimated to yield well with long range weather forecasts signalling above average rainfall, CBH said.

These factors, combined with above average yields coming in from the US harvest, will see a strong global supply of soy and may restrict lupin prices from gaining momentum, the company said.

US$1 = A$1.07125 (Nov 16)