November 16, 2005

USDA says bird flu may slash poultry demand by 50 percent

A H5N1 bird flu outbreak in the US could temporarily reduce domestic poultry consumption by up to 50 percent and cause losses of up to US$10 billion annually due to consumer fears, USDA researcher David Swayne said on Nov 15.

Swayne also predicted that many trading partners could immediately halt US poultry imports if the US finds the H5N1 virus in the country. Exports make up 8-15 percent of total poultry sales, or US$1.7-2.5 billion annually, according to USDA data.

While researchers and some government officials have downplayed the risk of bird flu reaching the US, there is a chance it could enter through migratory birds or smuggled birds.

In countries where the H5N1 strain has been discovered, chicken consumption has dropped dramatically and exports nearly halted.

The USDA has already taken precautions against the bird flu, banning imports of live birds and eggs from infected countries and requiring all imported birds to be quarantined and tested for the virus before entering the country.

The country-the world's largest producer and exporter of poultry meat-is currently expected to produce about 36 billion pounds of chickens in 2006.