November 15, 2004

Canada 2004-05 Grain-Oilseed Production Estimates Lowered

Canadian grain and oilseed production in 2004-05 should be slightly lower than originally expected, reported Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada in its latest supply/demand report, released Friday.
 
However, production will still be above the year-ago level. The Statistics Canada September production estimates were used for all crops except flaxseed, soybeans and corn. The 2004-05 crop year runs from Aug. 1, 2004 to July 31, 2005.
 
The western Canadian harvest is usually complete at this time of year. However, the harvest is currently less than 95% complete due to slow crop development and wet harvest conditions, said Ag Canada. Some crops will likely remain unharvested until the spring, said the report. Crop quality was generally expected to be below normal, with smaller percentages falling in the top grades.
 
The federal government's market analysis branch pegged total production of the eight major grains and oilseeds in Canada during 2004-05 at 60.411 million metric tons. This was down from the Oct. 8 forecast of 60.482 million tons and compares with the 2003 level of 59.663 million.
 
The eight major grains and oilseeds are canola, flaxseed, soybeans, wheat, oats, barley, corn and rye.
 
Carryover of the eight major grains and oilseeds in 2004-05 was pegged at 11.950 million tons, up from the Oct. 8 projection of 11.725 million and above the 2003-04 level of 11.010 million.
 
Total exports of these major crops in 2004-05 were pegged at 24.580 million tons, which was down from the Oct. 8 projection of 24.980 million. Exports in 2003-04 were placed at 25.330 million tons.
 
Total domestic usage of the grains and oilseeds for 2004-05 was expected to come in at 37.913 million tons. This was down from the 38.810 million projection on Oct. 8 and compares with the 2003-04 level of 36.341 million.
 
Nov. 12 estimates for Canadian 2004-05 (August-July), and 2003-04 grain and oilseed supply and demand. Domestic usage numbers include food and industrial use as well as feed, waste and dockage. In million metric tons.
 
Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.
  
                   ----Production----                  ----Exports----
             2004/05 2004/05 2003/04   2004/05 2004/05 2003/04 
               Nov 12   Oct 8                   Nov 12  Oct 8
*All Wht   24.462  24.462  23.552       16.000  16.200  15.726
 Duru        4.671   4.671   4.280           3.400   3.400   3.427
Barley     13.040  13.040  12.328        2.000   2.150   2.444
Corn         8.160   8.160   9.587          0.150   0.150   0.283
Oats         3.488   3.488   3.691           1.600   1.600   1.559
Rye          0.403   0.403   0.327           0.080   0.080   0.050
Canola     7.001    7.001   6.771         3.400   3.400   3.754
Flaxseed   0.600   0.672   0.754          0.500    0.550   0.609
Soybeans 2.920    2.920   2.268         0.850   0.850   0.905
 
              ----Domestic Usage----          ----Ending Stocks----
             2004/05 2004/05 2003/04   2004/05 2004/05 2003/04
              Nov 12    Oct 8                    Nov 12  Oct 8
All Wht     8.245     8.145   7.507          6.300   6.200   6.062
 Durum    0.961     0.961   0.683          2.100   2.100   1.790
Barley     10.137   10.137  9.288          3.050   2.900   2.106
Corn       10.803   10.803  11.335        0.750   0.750   1.143
Oats         1.959    1.959   1.875          0.750   0.750   0.800
Rye          0.305    0.305   0.258          0.070   0.070   0.050
Canola      3.632   3.632    3.541          0.800   0.800   0.612
Flaxseed   0.167    0.164   0.199          0.050   0.075   0.097
Soybeans  2.330    2.330   1.954          0.180   0.180   0.140
 * - Includes Durum