November 15, 2004

US Beef Import Growth Reflects Reduced Cow Slaughter

The 2004 beef import estimate is revised upward 5 percent from the March 2004 estimate.  In 2005, U.S. beef imports are forecast to reach nearly 1.7 million tons, though consumption will remain stable, increasing by less than 1 percent in 2005.  Import growth partly reflects reduced cow slaughter.  Lean trimmings from grass-fed, older cows are mixed with fat trimmings from grain-fed beef for hamburger meat.  Supplies of domestic processing beef are expected to be lower as cow inventories have been declining.  In addition, the ban on imported Canadian cattle has contributed to a smaller number of cows and cow beef available to U.S. meat packers for processing.  Because of lower U.S. production of lean trimmings and stable demand, lean trimmings must be imported from Australia, New Zealand, and Uruguay.  U.S. imports from Uruguay have increased due to the higher prices in the U.S. market and resumption of FMD-free status.