November 14, 2007

 

South America to reap larger soy crop this season

 

 

The five main South American soy producers are likely to harvest a combined 119.0 million tonnes in 2007/08, up by 3.0 million tonnes or 2.5 percent on the season, according to  Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World.

 

However the increase was just a third of the average crop growth of 9.2 million tonnes seen in the past three seasons, the report said.

 

Brazil is expected to see a 4-percent increase of 2.4 million tonnes in soy production from 59.3 million tonnes to 61.7 million tonnes.

 

The increase was more modest in Argentina, where production is expected to increase just 0.4 percent, rising from 47.8 million tonnes to 48.0 million tonnes.

 

Paraguay is expected to increase production 4 percent from 6.53 million tonnes to 6.8 million tonnes. Bolivia and Uruguay are also likely to see increases in soy production.

 

Although Oil World has revised it forecast of Brazil's crop down by 300,000 tonnes from its previous forecast on Oct 16, the latest estimate is still 2.4 million  tonnes above Brazil's national statistics institute IBGE's forecast of 59.32 million tonnes issued on Nov 8.

 

Oil World estimates harvested areas in Brazil has risen 1.2 million  hectares to 22.2 million hectares. Yields of 2.78 tonnes a hectare was also above the average 2.5 tonnes a hectare registered in the past five years. 

 

The report added that in Argentina, the yields obtained will be a major swing factor, mainly determining next year's production.

 

The report said it is unlikely that the record average yield of 3.0 tonnes a hectare in the 2007 crop can be repeated in early 2008.

 

Argentine farmers are still forecast to increase soy plantings despite the government's decision to raise grain and oilseeds export taxes, Oil World said.