November 13, 2003

USDA Lowers 2003-04 Argentina Wheat Crop To 13 Million Tons

Argentina's 2003-04 wheat production is forecast at 13.0 million tons, down 0.5 million tons or 4% from last month, but up 6% from last season's weather-reduced crop of 12.3 million tons, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said Wednesday in its World Agricultural Production report.

Harvested area is forecast at 5.8 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but down 2% from last season. Yield is forecast below average at 2.24 tons per hectare.

The same dry conditions affecting corn in parts of La Pampa, Cordoba and Buenos Aires Provinces are affecting wheat crops. Drought will affect the wheat crop less than corn, because no more than one-fifth of Argentina's wheat crop is in soil moisture deficit areas where moisture content is below 20%, the USDA said.

Rainfall has been below normal in the west, significantly below last year's rainfall amount. Rainfall in October stabilized yield potential in southern Buenos Aires Province, and that accounts for 34% of production. Rainfall was timely because wheat typically flowers in the first part of

November.

Argentina's wheat yield in 2003-04 is expected to be below the 5-year average, but much better than last year's yield, which was 2.09 tons per hectare - the lowest in six years. Wheat harvest begins in late October in Argentina and is 50% complete by mid-December.

Source: USDA