November 11, 2015


Ukraine's wheat harvest risked dropping close to a third in 2016


An autumn drought and weak crops towards the winter could led to a drop of Ukraine's wheat harvest - by close to a third – next year, according to the HGCA.


As a result of the driest fall in some parts of the country in five decades, 14% of planned winter wheat area are not sown, said Arthur Marshall, a HGCA market analyst.


As of October 29, slightly under half of the planted area had not seen germination, as revealed by the Agriculture Ministry, while over a third of plantations is rated 'weak' and 'sparse', UkrAgroConsult reported.


95% of Ukrainian wheat output is winter types, underscoring the importance of crop conditions to benefit overall production, said Marshall. Currently, crop developments are being constrained by daily minimum temperatures which dipped below 0 degrees Celsius.


In light of the present situation, UkrAgroConsult expected 2016's Ukrainian wheat harvest to fall from 27 million tonnes this year to 19 million tonnes. 


"This is predicted to lead to a 33% drop in exportable supplies, to 10 million tonnes," Marshall added. "While it may not be too late for these crops to recover, Ukraine's weather during winter and early spring will be an important factor to watch out for."

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