November 11, 2009


Global soy prices likely to rise in coming weeks



Global soy prices are likely to rise in coming weeks due to high US exports of soy and soy products on top of Argentina's upcoming soy crop concerns, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World forecast on Tuesday (Nov 10).


US exports of soy, soymeal and soyoil are set to accelerate from November as poor South American soy harvests in early 2009 continue to tighten global supplies, it said.


Global dependence on soy and soy products from US has been raised on lower South American supplies.


US soy crushings and exports are forecast to rise 16 percent on the year in November 2009-February 2010 to a record 38.7 million tonnes, reaching capacity limits for cargo handling, it said.


Available soy supplies in Argentina and Brazil were estimated to be 30-percent down on the year on September 1.


Oil World said this has started to enforce a significant decline in soy crushings as well as in exports of soy, soyoil and soymeal which will continue until new crop supplies become available in early 2010.


Concern continues to grow about drought damage to Argentina's soy crop in early 2010.


Argentina's soy crop losses could be even worse than expected unless the weather improves in the next three to six weeks, it said.