November 11, 2005

USDA predicts 2005-06 US soy crop at 3.043 billion bushels

The USDA Thursday raised its 2005-06 soybean production forecast to 3.04 billion bushels, a 76-million-bushel increase from the 2.97 billion bushels that was predicted a month ago.

If USDA's November forecast holds, the 2005-06 crop will be the second largest ever, behind the record 2004-05 crop of 3.12 billion bushels.

The monthly USDA supply and demand report attributed the increase to stronger-than-expected yields, which are now forecast to average 42.7 bushels/acre, an increase from the expected 41.6 bushels in USDA's October report.

The new November yield forecast, "based on Nov 1 conditions," would be a "record high," USDA said in its monthly crop production report, also released Thursday.

The USDA also raised its expectations for the 2005-06 soybean carryout with a new prediction of 350 million bushels, up from the 260 million forecast last month.

The forecast for 2005-06 soybean exports, though, was lowered from last month because of "lower-than-expected sales and shipments, particularly to (the EU) and China".

The USDA on Thursday lowered its soybean export prediction to 1.08 billion bushels, down from 1.12 billion a month ago.