November 10, 2005
Strategie Grains ups EU 2005-06 crop forecast to 254 million tonnes
The European Union 2005-06 grain output was forecast at 254.4 million tonnes, up 1.5 million tonnes from last month's estimate but down 11 percent from last season, according to Strategie Grains, a monthly analytical report issued Thursday.
The increase mainly came from a higher production forecast for corn, with a smaller rise for barley.
Strategie Grains now estimates 2005-06 EU soft wheat production at 115.1 million tonnes, unchanged from the October forecast and a fall of 8 percent from the 2004-05 season.
EU corn output was forecast at 48.1 million tonnes, up 1.3 million tonnes from the previous month's report and down 11 percent on the year.
Estimated corn production was revised up for Italy and Hungary and to a lesser extent France, Greece, Spain and Austria. Corn production in Poland was, however, revised down.
Strategie Grains said that weather conditions in October were mostly good, with the corn harvest advancing quickly as a result, except in Spain and Italy.
Meanwhile in Hungary, farmers have been postponing their corn harvests as long as possible due to high drying costs and limited storage capacities, Strategie Grains added.
EU barley output was estimated at 53.1 million tonnes, up from 52.9 million tonnes in October but down 13 percent from last year's crop. Durum output was estimated at 7.5 million tonnes, unchanged from last month and a drop of 36 percent on the year.
Crop Quality
Strategie Grains reported that the latest data confirmed deterioration in quality compared with last year in Hungary and the Czech Republic, in terms of Hagberg numbers and specific weights.
The report said German wheat quality also suffered - although to a lesser extent - because of rainfall at harvest time.
On the other hand, protein levels and Zeleny values have risen almost everywhere, Strategie Grains said.
In the UK, overall quality was better than last year with a sharp rise in bread wheat production seen.
