November 9, 2004

 

 

Russia's Total Grain Production Estimated at 75.8 Million MT

 

Total grain production in the Russian Federation is estimated at 75.8 million metric tons, including 43.8 million MT of wheat. The quality of wheat is worse than last year. However given the larger crop, the volume of milling wheat will meet the demand of the domestic baking industry, according to the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service.

 

Exports will remain high at 5 million MT. A smaller barley crop will result in decreased exports and in the substitution of wheat for barley in the alcohol and feed industries. Rye will also be in short supply and both imports as well as prices will increase. The corn crop is forecast to exceed 2 million MT. However, high demand from feed millers will keep imports high, the report said. 

 

Production

 

According to the Ministry of Agriculture (MinAg), the bunker weight of this year's crop as of October 11 was 81.5 million MT, including 46.4 million MT of wheat harvested from 41.3 million hectares (97 percent of total sown area). Yields have been decreasing as harvesting moves eastward and the average yield in September was only 1.97 tons per hectare, compared with 2.96 tons per hectare reported at the end of August. The average yield of wheat was 2.12 tons per hectare, or 0.34 tons higher than last year. The yields of other grains have not been reported, but are generally expected to be lower than last year.

 

Trade

 

Total exports are estimated by MinAg to range from 6 to 10 million MT. Analysts doubt Russia will export more than 8 million MT due to high domestic prices (wheat prices range from 4,200 R per metric ton for class 3 wheat to 3,200 Rubles for class 4 wheat- 28.78 RUR = $1) and more intense competition in foreign markets.

 

Official export data is not yet available, but experts estimate that in July through September 2004, Russia exported over 2.8 million MT, including almost 2.6 million MT of wheat, 0.6 million MT more than last year. Barley exports were only 235,000 metric tons, almost 860,000 tons less than last year. Exports are forecast to stop in December.

 

Crops

 

Wheat

 

Feed consumption is forecast to increase to 14.1 million MT reducing stocks.

 

Barley

 

The barley crop is lowered to 18.2 million MT based on lower expected yields. Imports, mainly malting barley, will rebound to 400,000 metric tons, while exports will decrease to 1.7 million MT.

 

Corn

 

According to the MinAg, as of Oct. 11, 910,000 metric tons of corn was harvested from 202,000 hectares (22 percent of the total corn area), with an average yield of 4.51 tons per hectare, almost 0.9 tons higher than last year. The production forecast is increased to 2.25 million MT. The additional corn will be used primarily for industrial consumption, not for feeding.