November 8, 2007
Projections for China 2007 corn, soy plummet
Estimates for the China's 2007 corn harvest has been slashed by 1 million tonnes and reduced its soy forecast for the second time in two months due to drought damage in the northeast.
In its latest report, the China National Grain and Oils Information Centre (CNGOIC) estimated that corn output would rise by 1.73 percent this year to 148 million tonnes, as increased acreage offset the drought damage. Previous forecast is at 149 million tonnes.
China's northeast provinces of Jilin and Heilongjiang, the centre of corn and soy production, suffered the worst drought in years in June and July.
CNGOIC also revised down its soy output forecast this year by 400,000 tonnes to 14 million tonnes, 12.3 percent lower than last year as farmers shifted to grow corn. It had revised down its forecast to 14.4 million tonnes in September.
The dry spell has also reduced the country's spring wheat harvest. Spring wheat accounts for a small part of the country's total wheat output.
Its 2007 rice output estimate remained unchanged at 186.5 million tonnes, a rise of 2.2 percent from 2006.
The centre gave the following forecasts.
Production figures are in millions of tonnes. Previous estimates are in brackets
|
|
2007 |
2006 |
2005 |
|
Corn |
148.00 (149.00) |
145.48 |
139.37 |
|
Wheat |
106.00 (107.00) |
104.46 |
97.45 |
|
Winter wheat |
102.00 (102.00) |
98.63 |
91.43 |
|
Rice |
186.50 (186.50) |
182.57 |
180.60 |
|
Soy |
14.00 (14.40) |
15.97 |
16.35 |
|
Rapeseed |
12.00 (12.00) |
12.65 |
13.05 |
Planted areas (in million hectares) /previous estimates are in brackets
|
|
2007 |
2006 |
2005 |
|
Corn |
28.05 (28.05) |
26.97 |
26.40 |
|
Wheat |
23.00 (23.00) |
22.96 |
22.80 |
|
Rice |
29.23 (29.23) |
29.30 |
28.80 |
|
Soy |
8.70 (8.80) |
09.28 |
09.60 |
|
Rapeseed |
6.48 (6.48) |
06.88 |
07.30 |
