November 8, 2005

 

CBOT Corn Outlook on Tuesday: Mixed as harvest moves into final stage

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Traders and analysts expect corn futures at the Chicago Board of Trade to open mixed Tuesday on mostly steady overnight trading and after recent data showing the U.S. harvest moving into its final stages.

 

In e-cbot trade, December corn was unchanged at US$1.94 3/4 a bushel.

 

Ninety percent of the corn crop has been harvested as of Sunday, Nov. 6, up from 74% at the same time last year and the 84% five-year average, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said Monday afternoon.

 

The report held no surprises for the market as most traders and analysts had expected the crop to be 89%-92% harvested.

 

Farmers are expected to make further harvest progress this week, particularly in the western belt where mostly dry conditions are seen into Saturday. Showers are expected to develop later Saturday into Sunday, however, bringing 0.25-1 inch of rain and locally heavier amounts, private weather forecaster DTN Meteorlogix said.

 

In the eastern belt, episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected in the next 24-48 hours with rain totals of 0.10-0.50 inch and locally heavier amounts. Dry conditions are seen Thursday through Saturday, with scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday.

 

In news, Ukraine harvested 6.42 million metric tonnes of corn to Nov. 7 on 1.49 million hectares, or 86% of the total harvested area, the agriculture ministry said Tuesday. This is slightly behind last year's harvest to date, which totaled 1.65 million hectares.

 

Vietnam on Tuesday confirmed its 42nd human death from bird flu, its first in over three months. The 35-year-old man died Oct. 29 and tested positive for the H5N1 strain of bird flu. The man and his family bought and prepared chicken from a market, though no other family members showed symptoms of the flu.

 

Swiss Tamiflu maker Roche Holding AG said Tuesday it had stopped selling the anti-viral drug in China and was turning its supplies over to the government as officials were ordered to prepare for possible human cases of bird flu, the Associated Press reported. In the event of a flu pandemic, the government is in the best position to handle rapid response and distribution, Roche said.

 

China hasn't yet reported any cases of human infection of the H5N1 strain, but health officials say a case is inevitable if China can't stop outbreaks in its poultry flocks.

 

Trade is expected to be fairly quiet amid a lack of fresh news for the corn market as attentions turn to demand and to Thursday's release of the USDA's November crop production and supply/demand reports.

 

The government is expected to nudge corn production up to 10.965 billion bushels on average, from 10.857 in October, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey. U.S. carryout is seen at 2.281 billion bushels, from 2.22 billion estimated in October.

 

Technically, December corn finds first resistance at Monday's US$1.95 1/4 high, then US$1.98 1/2. First support is seen at Monday's contract low of US$1.94 1/4, then US$1.93, analyst Jim Wyckoff noted.